After a weak performance at the end of the last trading week, where the DAX had to relinquish most of its recent gains, investors are keenly watching the start of the new week. Although the recent low was defended, bulls had no answer for the bears on the last trading day. The DAX recently closed at 24,289.51 points with a slight decline of 0.3 percent.
Investors currently seem content that hope hasn't completely left the market despite massive tariff threats from the US President, and the index remains stable. Therefore, securing positions and closing out gains was a logical consequence for investors.
Tariffs or Seasonality? These Factors Could Now Crash the DAX!
What's next for the market? Economically and politically, hopes rest on a resolution to the tariff dispute with the US, which could offer the German economy a chance to recover and generate new growth. However, reality is sobering: recent warnings from semiconductor giants like ASML, despite strong results, dampen euphoria. Adding to this is the notorious August, a traditionally weak stock market month, which is just around the corner. Statistically, the DAX also faces a seasonal selling point that often finds its low only in late September. While these are historical patterns, certain behaviors tend to repeat in the stock market. Therefore, particular caution is advised in the coming days and weeks until the market decides which direction it will take.
Capital Flight: Investors Shifting to Defensive Stocks – An Alarm Signal?
Among individual stocks, E.ON, RWE, and Brenntag shined recently, securing the top spots. However, the price gains for these three stocks were modest: E.ON gained 1.1 percent, while RWE and Brenntag each rose by 0.8 percent. This indicates a shift of capital towards more defensive sectors like utilities—often a sign of increasing uncertainty. Siemens Energy, meanwhile, continues to struggle with the 100-euro mark and recently closed with a 1.7 percent decline.
For the upcoming start of the week, it's important that the DAX still shows some stability. Nevertheless, the recent selling trend, the strengthening of defensive values, and the approaching seasonal selling point all warrant increased caution. The bears appear to be lying in wait.
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