Focus on Chinese GDP and CPI figures from the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan & New Zealand
On Monday 17th: Chinese GDP and Industrial Production are due, along with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
On Tuesday 18th: RBA monetary policy minutes are released today, as well as Canadian Inflation figures, US Industrial Production and New Zealand Inflation figures.
On Wednesday 19th: UK Inflation figures, US Building Permits, and the Japanese Trade Balance are due.
On Thursday 20th: Australian Employment data, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Japanese Inflation figures are all released.
On Friday 21st: UK and Canadian Retail Sales are due to be released.
Weekly outlook
With signs of a cooling American job market in June, investors turned their attention to two key events this week: the release of the US consumer price index signaling a slowdown in US inflation, and the start of the second-quarter earnings season with major American banks such as JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo publishing their results on Friday, with analysts expecting tighter credit conditions to have influenced financial institutions' earnings somewhat.
Traders have taken a risk-on mode in the last few days after a significant drop, expecting the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes after the July meeting to assess the impact of higher rates on economic growth and inflation.
For the upcoming earnings season, investors are wondering how much the influence of higher interest rates and persistent inflation will have hindered overall consumption and spending...
Monday 17th of July
The Chinese economy expanded 4.5% year over year in the first quarter, picking up speed from Q4's 2.9% growth. It was the fastest rate of growth since the first quarter of 2022, and it coincided with Beijing's efforts to speed the post-pandemic recovery. The most recent GDP figures for Q2 are to be released at 2:00 AM GMT and are tipped to show further growth upwards of 7%.
Meanwhile, the annual growth rate of China's industrial production slowed to 3.5% in May from 5.6% in April, falling just short of market expectations. Analysts expect growth of just 2.6% for June as manufacturing activity slows.
From a four-month low of -31.8 in May, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surprisingly increased 38 points to +6.6 in June. However, this is tipped to slip back to 0 according to consensus estimates for the July data due out at 12:30 PM GMT today.
Major Earnings Reports:
HDFC Bank
Tuesday 18th of July
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its most recent monetary policy meeting minutes at 1:30 AM GMT today. Following a 25 basis point increase in June and 400 basis point increase since the tightening cycle began, the RBA kept its cash rate steady at 4.1% during its July meeting. The committee suggested it required more time to evaluate the results of previous increases.
Canada's annual inflation rate, due at 12:30 PM GMT, dropped to 3.4% in May from 4.4% the previous month, marking its lowest level since June 2021. A dip to 3.1% is expected for June, while the core rate is expected to slow slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%.
Retail sales in the United States in May surprisingly increased 0.3% from the previous month, following a gain of 0.4% in April. In spite of rising prices and interest rates, the figures showed that consumer expenditure held steady. When the most updated data is released at 12:30 PM GMT growth of 0.5% is expected.
Meanwhile The United States' industrial production also rose 0.2% from May 2022 to May 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in April. June figures, due at 1:15 PM GMT, however, will likely show a dip of around 0.5%.
New Zealand's CPI rose 1.2% in March compared to the previous month. Since the first quarter of 2021, this is the lowest quarterly price increase. Consensus estimates are for growth of 0.9% for the second quarter when the results are released at 10:45 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken
Bank of America
Swedbank
Novartis
Morgan Stanley
Lockheed Martin
Charles Schwab Corp
Wednesday 19th of July
CPI in the UK in May remained steady at 8.7%, which remained unchanged from the previous month's 13-month low. The rate remaining high above target has increased pressure on decision-makers to continue the bank's current tightening effort. Forecasts are for an 8.3% rise for June when the latest data is released at 6:00 AM GMT, while the core rate is only expected to drop from 7.1% to 7%.
Building permits in the US climbed by 5.6% in May, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.496 million. June figures, released at 12:30 PM GMT, are expected to show a slight decline to 1.495 million.
Japan's trade deficit shrank to JPY 1,372.5 billion in May from JPY 2,366.1 billion the previous year. It was the 22nd month of a trade deficit, the longest streak since 2015. When the new report is released at 11:50 PM GMT, it’s expected the deficit will be reduced to around JPY 620 billion.
Major Earnings Reports:
Tesla
Atlas Copco
ASSA ABLOY
ASML
Netflix
IBM
Goldman Sachs
Thursday 20th of July
Australian Employment data for June is due at 1:30 AM GMT today. The number of people working in Australia jumped by 75,900 to 14,010,000 in May, much exceeding the 15,000 increase predicted by the market and following a 4,000 decrease in April that was corrected downward. Forecasts are for growth above 25,000 this month, while the Unemployment rate will likely remain at 3.6%.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the United States, due at 12:30 PM GMT, fell to -13.7 in June from May's -10.4 reading. Expectations are for a -9.7 result for July as the outlook for growth over the following six months remains cautious.
After reaching a three-month high in April of 3.5%, the annual inflation rate in Japan surprisingly dropped to 3.2% in May, missing market expectations of 4.1%. Adding to the downward trend, analysts expect a further drop to 3.1% for June, when the report is released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Johnson & Johnson
Abbott Laboratories
Philip Morris International
Intuitive Surgical
Friday 21st of July
Retail sales in the UK for May were up 0.3% from the previous month, following April's 0.5% growth. The newest data for June, published at 6:00 AM GMT is expected to show a decline of 0.2%, while a 1.7% decline is expected year over year for June.
Meanwhile, Canadian Retail sales, according to early projections, are predicted to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month in May after a 1.1% growth the previous month.
Major Earnings Reports:
Evolution AB
American Express
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