On Monday 29th: German Inflation Rate YoY Prel
On Tuesday 30th: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel, French Inflation Rate YoY Prel, German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash, European GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash and European Inflation Rate YoY Flash
On Wednesday 1st: Labor day with some stock exchanges closed like Euronext. Japanese Consumer Confidence, American ISM Manufacturing PMI, American JOLTs Job Openings, American Fed Interest Rate Decision
On Thursday 2nd: Australian Balance of Trade and Canadian Balance of Trade
On Friday 3rd: American Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate and American ISM Services PMI
Monday 29th of April
Germany's inflation rate continued its downward trend in March 2024, dropping to 2.2% from 2.5% the previous month (the lowest inflation rate since May 2021).
Several factors drove the decline. Food prices saw their first decrease since February 2015, while ongoing deflation in energy prices accelerated. Additionally, inflation for goods in general experienced a significant slowdown. However, service sector inflation actually rose at a faster pace in March. Core inflation, which doesn’t include volatile items such as food and energy, also edged down slightly to 3.3% – its lowest since June 2022.
Despite the recent decline, market participants still anticipate a slight increase in the German inflation rate (YoY) for April to 2.3% when the data is released at 12:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● BYD
● Vivendi
Tuesday 30th of April
China's manufacturing sector continued to show signs of expansion in March 2024, as the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) rose to 51.1, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. This is the fastest pace recorded since February 2023, driven by a surge in both domestic and foreign new orders. Notably, foreign sales witnessed their strongest increase in a year, while output climbed at its highest rate since May 2023.
Despite the positive overall trend, the sector continued to shed jobs in March. Nonetheless, buying activity remained on the rise. On the inflation front, input prices, the cost of raw materials, fell for the first time since July. This led companies to reduce their selling prices for the third consecutive month, marking the sharpest decline in eight months. Overall sentiment within the sector improved significantly, reaching its highest level since April 2023.
Market participants are cautiously optimistic, expecting the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April to edge up slightly to 51.3 when data is released at 01:45 AM GMT.
The French economy maintained its momentum in the final quarter of 2023, expanding by 0.7% year-on-year (after +0.6% in Q3 2023). Despite this continued growth, the pace has moderated compared to 2022, which saw a full-year expansion of 2.5%. Overall, the French economy grew by 0.9% for the full year of 2023.
Market participants are anticipating a slight acceleration in growth for Q1 2024. Forecasts suggest the French GDP growth rate (year-on-year) could reach 1.2% when the preliminary official data is released at 05:30 AM GMT.
France witnessed further easing of inflation in March 2024, as the annual inflation rate dropped to 2.3%, marking the lowest level since September 2021. This represents a significant decline from 3% recorded in February. The broad slowdown affected prices across various sectors. Food, services, energy, and manufactured goods all saw a decrease in inflation rates.
While this is positive news for consumers, market participants still anticipate a slight uptick in April. Forecasts suggest that the preliminary French inflation rate (year-on-year) could rise to 2.4% when data is released at 06:45 AM GMT.
Germany's economic outlook darkened in the final quarter of 2023, with the nation experiencing a 0.2% year-on-year contraction. This marked the second consecutive quarter of decline, officially pushing Germany into a technical recession – the first since 2020-2021. Rising prices, increasing borrowing costs, and a slowdown in external demand all combined to dampen economic activity.
Forecasts predict a slight improvement in the first quarter of 2024, with a projected flash German GDP growth rate (year-on-year) of 0.1%. This data is expected to be released at 08:00 AM GMT.
The Euro Area economy showed signs of stagnation in the final quarter of 2023, as the GDP remained flat compared to the same period in 2022. Analysts predict a slight rebound in the first quarter of 2024, with a projected GDP growth rate of 0.5% when the data is released at 09:00 AM GMT.
Eurozone inflation continued its downward trend in March 2024, reaching a new 28-month low of 2.4% year-on-year. This matches the low point recorded in November 2023 and slightly surpasses the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
The slowdown in price increases was broad-based. Both food, alcohol & tobacco and non-energy industrial goods saw the pace of inflation moderate. Additionally, the decline in energy prices softened somewhat. However, services inflation remained steady.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also cooled in March. At 2.9%, it hit its lowest level since February 2022.
Market participants anticipate this trend to continue, with forecasts suggesting the Eurozone inflation rate (year-on-year) will remain unchanged at 2.4% for the first quarter of 2024. Official data on this is expected to be released at 09:00 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● 3M
● Adidas
● Air France-KLM
● Amazon.com
● Coca-Cola
● Deutsche Lufthansa
● Eli lilly
● HSBC
● McDonald’s
● Paypal
● Starbucks
● Stellantis
● Volkswagen
Wednesday 1st of May
Labor Day holiday observed today. Some stock exchanges, such as Euronext, will be closed. Wall Street will be open.
Consumer sentiment in Japan brightened in March 2024, with the consumer confidence index climbing to 39.5. This marked the highest reading since April 2019, surpassing the slightly revised figure of 39.0 from the previous month.
The improvement stemmed from a more optimistic outlook across various aspects of household finances. This included positive sentiment towards income growth, employment prospects, and the willingness to purchase durable goods like cars and appliances.
Looking ahead, market participants anticipate continued positive momentum. Forecasts predict a slight increase in Japanese Consumer Confidence for April, reaching an estimated 39.6 when the data is released at 05:00 AM GMT.
The manufacturing sector in the United States finally showed signs of recovery in March 2024. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, marking the first time it crossed the growth threshold (50) after 16 consecutive months of contraction.
This positive development suggests an increase in demand. Indicators like the new orders index and the new export orders index both pointed towards expansion. However, production backlogs remained slightly low. Encouragingly, panellists reported that their companies had notably increased production levels, indicating a shift towards meeting the rising demand.
Despite the overall positive trend, there are still areas of concern. Employment in the manufacturing sector continues to decline. Additionally, prices remained moderately high, likely driven by fluctuations in commodity costs.
Market participants expect a slight slowdown in April with forecasts suggesting that the American ISM Manufacturing PMI could dip back down to 49 when the data is released at 02:00 PM GMT.
The number of job openings in the United States edged slightly higher in February 2024, bringing the total to 8.756 million. Despite this uptick, market participants are anticipating a modest decline in job openings for March. Forecasts suggest the number could fall to 8.7 million when the official data is released at 02:00 PM GMT.
The Federal Reserve opted to maintain the fed funds rate at its current 23-year high of 5.25% - 5.5% during their March 2024 meeting for the fifth consecutive meeting. Interestingly, policymakers haven't abandoned their plan for interest rate cuts throughout 2024. They continue to project three reductions this year, mirroring the forecasts they made back in December.
The Fed is expected to be adopting a wait-and-see approach in view of recent economic data with another hold on interest rates when the official announcement is released at 06:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● eBay
● Equity
● Mastercard
● Paramount
● Pfizer
Thursday 2nd of May
Australia's trade surplus shrank to AUD 7.28 billion in Feb (smallest since Sep 2023) due to falling exports and rising imports. Market expects the surplus to rebound to AUD 7.9 billion in March (data released at 01:30 AM GMT).
Canada's trade surplus surged to CAD 1.4 billion in February 2024 and market participants are optimistic for March 2024, as they forecast a further rise to CAD 3.3 billion (data released at 12:30 PM GMT).
Major Earnings Releases:
● Apple
● Arcelormittal
● Coinbase Global
● Hugo Boss
● ING Groep
● ITT
● Moody’s Corp
● Motorola Solutions
● Novo Nordisk
● Quanta Services
● Shell
● Technip
● Thomson Reuters
Friday 3rd of May
The US economy added a robust 303,000 jobs in March 2024, marking the strongest hiring surge in ten months. This positive news comes after upward revisions to job growth in January and February, indicating a slightly stronger labour market than previously thought. However, market participants anticipate a slowdown in April, forecasting only 190,000 new jobs when the official data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The US unemployment rate defied expectations in March 2024, dropping slightly to 3.8% from a two-year high of 3.9% the previous month. This positive surprise comes despite recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The labour market has shown remarkable resilience, hovering between 3.7% and 3.9% unemployment since August 2023. Market participants anticipate this trend to continue, with forecasts suggesting the unemployment rate will hold steady at 3.8% in April when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The US services sector showed signs of a slowdown in March 2024. The ISM Services PMI dipped to 51.4, marking the weakest growth in three months. Employment continued to be a challenge, with businesses struggling to fill open positions or manage rising labour costs.
However, business activity and new export orders both increased at a faster pace than before. Additionally, price pressures eased to their lowest level since March 2020, offering some relief. Despite this, survey respondents indicated ongoing concerns about inflation, even with some price stabilisation.
Market participants anticipate the slowdown to continue, with forecasts suggesting the American ISM Services PMI could fall further to 50.8 in April (data released at 02:00 PM GMT).
Major Earnings Releases:
● Crédit Agricole
● Daimler
● Glencore
● Legrand
● Société Générale
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