On Monday 26th: Germany's Ifo Business Climate index is published, as is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.
On Tuesday 27th: Canada’s Inflation rate, US Durable Goods Orders, the US CB Consumer Confidence Index and US New Home Sales are all due.
On Wednesday 28th: Australian and Italian Inflation figures are published, as well as the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany, while a host of Central Bankers are due to speak in Portugal.
On Thursday 29th: Japanese Consumer Confidence, German Inflation figures and US Pending Home Sales are all due.
On Friday 30th: Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI is due, along with French and Euro Area Inflation figures, US PCE data and US Personal Spending and Income.
Weekly outlook
The final week of June will have plenty in store for investors ahead of the latest earnings season due in a couple of weeks. Many will be watching as highly anticipated CPI figures across some major economies show stubborn inflation is consistently on its way down in the aftermath of tightening monetary policy. However, stronger-than-expected employment and GDP figures across the board are making it difficult for Central Banks to pull back on interest rates beyond a pause in tightening just yet.
Monday 26th of June
In May 2023, Germany's Ifo Business Climate index fell 1.7 points to 91.7, down from the previous month's 14-month high and below market forecasts of 93.0. The indicator fell for the first time since October after a sharp decrease in industry forecasts and likely fewer new orders due to recent interest rate rises and persistently high prices. The most recent data to be released at 8:00 AM GMT analysts see a further dip to 91.5.
The general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas dropped by 5.7 points from the previous month to -29.1 in May of 2023 a low point not seen since 2020. The June forecast is for a decent recovery to -12, when the recent figures are published at 2:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 27th of June
The annual inflation rate in Canada increased to 4.4% in April 2023 from a 19-month low of 4.3% the previous month, above market estimates of 4.1%. Following a further rise in interest rates from the BoC, the rate of inflation for May is seen to be dropping to 4.2% by analysts when the latest data comes out at 12:30 PM GMT. Released concurrently, Core Inflation is also seen to be down slightly from 4.1% to 4.0% year over year.
Following a March growth rate of 3.3% that was upwardly revised, new orders for US-made durable goods increased by 1.1% from the previous month in April, well above market estimates. Estimates for a drop of 1.3% are expected for May month over month when the report is published at 12:30 PM GMT.
US Consumer optimism as gauged by the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be up to 104 for June from 102.5 last month. May saw a fall in consumer confidence due to consumers' considerably less positive views of the present state of the economy and their continued pessimistic outlook. The recent pause in monetary tightening by the Fed and debt ceiling resolution are hoped to improve the recent figures to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Sales of new single-family homes in the US surged 4.1% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 683K in April. This was the highest level of sales since March last year, however analysts see the May figures coming in lower at around 657K at 2:00 PM GMT.
Wednesday 28th of June
Australia's new monthly CPI index rose to 6.8% year-over-year in April, which was up from 6.3% in March, and the lowest figure in 10 months. Because of a surge in transportation costs, yearly inflation rose for the first time since last December, but when the latest number is released at 1:30 AM GMT today, expectations are for a slight improvement to 6.7%.
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany increased for the eighth consecutive month to -24.2 heading into June, the highest reading since April 2022. Further improvement to -23 is forecast at 6:00 AM GMT, as projected salary improvements have helped to reduce inflation-related purchasing power concerns.
Italy's annual inflation rate dropped to 7.6% in May 2023 from 8.2% in April and was the same as March's one year low. When the latest reading is due at 9:00 AM GMT, analysts see the rate falling further to 6.9%.
Central Bank Governors, Christine Lagarde of the ECB, Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve, Andrew Bailey of the BoC, and Kazuo Ueda of the BoJ are all due to speak today on a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal at 1:30 PM GMT.
Thursday 29th of June
In May, the Japanese consumer confidence index increased to 36 from 35.4 the previous month, coming in just below market expectations. As the economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic, the index is expected to reach its highest level since January 2022 at around 38 for the June report, due at 5:00 AM GMT.
Germany's annual inflation, due at 12:00 PM GMT, dropped to 6.1% in May from 7.2% in April, the lowest level in 14 months. Preliminary data is expected to show a further decline in the rate to 5.8% for June.
The annual decline in Pending Home Sales in the United States slowed to 20.3% in April 2023 from the previous month's 23.2% drop, the lowest annual decline in nine months. As conditions continue to improve, expectations are for a drop of 17% for the May figures released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Friday 30th of June
The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 in May from 49.2 in April, below market expectations of 49.4. This was the lowest reading in five months, and weak local and international demand are likely to have contributed. Released at 1:30 AM GMT, the latest figures are expected to show an increase back to positive territory at around 51 for June.
Inflation in France's consumer prices fell to 5.1% from 5.2% in April, as the costs of fuel, groceries, and industrial output all leveled out. If forecasts are correct, the Preliminary figures, published at 6:45 AM GMT, will show a drop to 4.7%.
The Euro Area's consumer price inflation was confirmed in May at 6.1%, which was the lowest level since February 2022. A drop to 5.6% is expected when the Flash figures are due at 9:00 AM GMT. While Core Inflation, released at the same time, is hoped to have cooled to 5.1% from 5.3% also for June.
Prices for personal consumption items in the US increased more than anticipated in April, supporting wagers that the Federal Reserve would stick to its hawkish position and keep interest rates high for an extended length of time. In April, Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month over month, above the market's forecast. New data due at 12:30 PM GMT is expected to show further growth of 0.3% for May.
Also from the US, Personal Spending and Personal Income are set to be released at 12:30 PM GMT, and are both forecast to show positive growth of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Higher wages have supported strong growth in recent months as the labor market remains tight.
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