On Monday 11th: Chinese New Yuan Loans are due.
On Tuesday 12th: Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index and the NAB business confidence index are due, along with Employment data from the UK and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany.
On Wednesday 13th: UK GDP and US Inflation figures are released.
On Thursday 14th: Australian Employment figures are due, the ECB meets on Monetary Policy, and the US PPI and Retail Sales are published.
On Friday 15th: Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales and the Unemployment Rate are due, along with the EU Trade Balance, and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index.
Weekly outlook
A slow and solemn start to the week this week, on the anniversary of September 11, however there is much to occupy investors and traders from Tuesday onwards. US Inflation figures will be closely watched by all, as the Fed is due to meet again on monetary policy on September 20th. While markets are generally pricing in a hold on rate increases this month, there is still an outside chance that the incoming data may push the board to act aggressively again to smother inflation.
When the ECB meets this week to set rates again, opinions are split on whether more hikes are necessary after a year of tightening. Bank of Italy Governor and ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco warned on Wednesday that the ECB is getting close to the point when it would have to halt rate rises. Visco suggested that he disagreed with the view held by some in the ECB that it is preferable for the central bank to make errors by raising rates more than required.
Monday 11th of September
Chinese New Yuan Loans figures are tentatively due today. In July, China's banks issued new loans totalling CNY 345.9 billion, far less than market expectations of CNY 800 billion and the lowest amount since November 2009. Spending and borrowing are closely associated; when people and organizations are secure about their future financial situation and feel comfortable spending money, they are more likely to apply for loans. August figures are expected to be up around CNY 550 billion.
Tuesday 12th of September
Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index fell 0.4% month-over-month to 81.0 in August, down from 2.7% in July, as the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at 4.1% for the second straight month after raising them by 400 basis points since May 2022. After a subsequent hold in interest rates earlier this month, the index is seen to be increasing by 0.6% to 81.5 for September when the results are published at 12:30 AM GMT.
Again from Australia, the NAB business confidence index is due at 1:30 AM GMT. The index rose to 2 in July from a negatively revised -1 the previous month, indicating the highest level since January but still being historically low. The August figure is expected to dip slightly back to 1.
Employment data from the UK is due today at 6:00 AM GMT. In the three months ending in June, the unemployment rate reached 4.2%, the highest level since late 2021 and higher than the 4% recorded in the prior quarter. Also in the same period, the number of persons employed in the UK declined by 66,000, after a 102,000 increase in the previous 3 month period. An increase is expected up to around 26,000 this week.
After hitting its lowest point since December in July, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose to -12.3 in August. A slight increase is expected again for September when the results are released at 9:00 AM GMT, as a result of the belief that interest rates have or are soon to hit their peak.
Wednesday 13th of September
The UK is due to release GDP figures at 6:00 AM GMT today. Back in June, the British economy grew 0.5% from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.2% growth and recovering from a 0.1% drop in May when an additional vacation day for the King's Coronation impacted on GDP. A dip of 0.3% is forecast for July.
The US annual inflation rate increased to 3.2% in July from 3% in June, although it was less than the expected 3.3%. It puts an end to the 12 straight months of reductions from when the figure began to decline from its 9.1% high a year earlier. A slight bump to 3.4% is expected for August, while the core rate is expected to drop from 4.7% to around 4.5%.
Thursday 14th of September
The seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate in Australia rose to 3.7% in July from 3.5% in June and marked the highest level since April. The number of people without jobs also increased, by 35,600 to 541,000. When the latest employment figures are released at 1:30 AM GMT, the Unemployment Rate is expected to have dropped back to 3.6% and 40,000 new jobs may have been created.
The European Central Bank is due to meet on Monetary Policy this week, with the decision statement released at 12:15 PM GMT and the Press Conference to follow a half hour later. The minutes from the most recent ECB meeting revealed that despite the policymakers' insistence on the possibility of a September rate hike when they increased interest rates in July, some members were doubtful new data would support another hike. In response to rising inflation, the ECB has raised interest rates from -0.5% to 3.75% in a little over a year. However, analysts expect there to be a pause in the cycle this week.
The US Producer Price Index increased by 0.3% month over month in July, the highest gain since January, after a flat result in June. Services prices increased by 0.5%, the most since August 2022, after falling by 0.1% in June. A 0.4% increase is forecast when the new data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Published concurrently from the US, new Retail sales data is also due. Last month the results showed US sales increased 0.7% month over month, marking the fourth straight increase and indicating that consumer spending is still robust despite rising prices and borrowing rates. A 0.2% increase is forecast for August.
Friday 15th of September
A number of Chinese economic news is due at 2:00 AM GMT today, including Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and the Unemployment Rate, among others.
The annual growth rate of China's industrial output slowed to 3.7% in July from 4.4% in June, falling short of analysts' expectations, but is expected to climb again to 4% for August. Annualised Retail Sales figures have been positive but gradually falling over the last few months. 2.8% growth is forecast for August, above the previous month’s 2.5% growth. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is set to increase slightly to 5.4% from 5.3% in August.
The Trade Balance in the Eurozone is due to be released at 9:00 AM GMT. When compared to a deficit of EUR 27.1 billion in the same month a year earlier, June’s trade surplus of EUR 23 billion exceeded market estimates of EUR 18.3 billion. A slight drop to EUR 20 billion is expected for July.
In August, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -19 from 1.1 in July, indicating a drop in manufacturing activity for the first time in three months and significantly below market expectations of -1. When the latest data is released at 12:30 PM GMT, expectations are for an increase to -10.
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