On Monday 28th: Australian Retail Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index are due.
On Tuesday 29th: The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany is due, along with US JOLTs Job Openings, and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
On Wednesday 30th: Australian and German CPI data, the US ADP Employment Change and US GDP and Pending Home Sales are all due.
On Thursday 31st: The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI, along with inflation and GDP data from France, EU inflation, and US Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Price data are all published.
On Friday 1st: Manufacturing PMIs are due across a range of major economies, Canada’s GDP is due and US Employment data including Non farm Payrolls are released.
Weekly outlook
A fairly busy week in markets and economic updates for investors this week. A host of prominent Chinese financial companies are scheduled to disclose their earnings performance for the previous quarter this week. These are to follow other prominent Chinese companies in the retail space, including JD.com, Tencent, and Alibaba.
All of these reported results for the three-month period ending in June earlier this month indicated a consistent increase in consumer expenditure for the quarter. Data for July indicate that China's economy is slowing, so these coming results will be interesting.
Also, highly anticipated will be the US Employment data coming out during the week. Although the jobs market has still been running hot and above the long-term average, it is starting to show a few signs of cooling. This result will be watched closely by the Fed, as it pulls together a host of information to decide what to do with interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting on the 20th of September.
Monday 28th of August
Retail sales in Australia are due at 1:30 AM GMT today. Having had a decrease of 0.8% month over month in June after sales increased by 0.8% the previous month, it was the second decrease seen so far this year. Even as the challenges associated with rising costs of living continue to weigh heavily on consumer spending, a forecast of 0.2% growth month over month is forecast for July.
For the second consecutive month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas increased, reaching a four-month high of -20.0 in July. When the most recent data is available at 2:30 PM GMT, it's expected that the index will improve further to around -16.
Major Earnings Reports:
BYD Co Ltd
China Overseas Land & Investment
Tuesday 29th of August
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany improved to -24.4 for the month of August, up from the previously reported -25.2. With reduced inflation expected, people's income expectations are at their best level since February 2022. The September result, due at 6:00 AM GMT, is forecast to be in line with the positive trend, moving to around -22.
The US JOLTs Job Openings report is due to be released today at 2:00 PM GMT. In June, there were 34,000 fewer job vacancies than a month earlier, bringing the total to 9.582 million. This was the lowest number of openings since April 2021 and was lower than the market estimates, indicating that the labor market may finally be slowing down. Tending in the same direction, 9.57 million positions are expected to have been open from July.
The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August will also be available at 2:00 PM today. The level of consumer confidence in the economy’s future is tracked by the index, and high or low levels tend to affect people’s propensity to spend. A slight dip from 117 to around 115 is expected this month.
Major Earnings Reports:
Agricultural Bank of China
Ping An Insurance
Xiaomi Corp
NIO Inc Class A
Wednesday 30th of August
From Australia, the monthly Consumer Price Index is to be published at 1:30 AM GMT today. The index rose by 5.4% in the year to June, slowing from a 5.5% growth in May that was downwardly corrected and staying in line with market expectations. This was the lowest rate of inflation since February 2022, mostly as a result of a slowdown in the price of housing and food as well as a decrease in the cost of transportation. A further dip to 5.1% is forecast for July.
Inflation in Germany fell to 6.2% in July from 6.4% in June and remained close to May's 14-month low of 6.1%. The core rate, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also decreased to 5.5%, adding to signs that inflationary pressures in the country were beginning to ease. Preliminary findings are expected to be published at 12:00 PM GMT.
According to the ADP Employment Change report, private firms in the US recruited 324 thousand people in July, up from the downwardly revised 455 thousand gain the previous month and well above market estimates. When the latest report is due at 12:15 PM GMT today, analysts expect around 280 thousand new jobs.
Early estimates showed the US economy grew by an annualized 2.4% quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2023, greater than the 1.8% market forecast and 2% growth in the prior quarter. New figures are set to confirm the GDP Growth Rate at 2.4% when they’re released at 12:30 PM GMT today.
The annualized drop in US Pending Home Sales was 15.6% in June, after the revised annual drop of 22.1% in May. A slight improvement to -12% is expected from July when the newest data is published at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Industrial And Commercial Bank of China
PetroChina Co Ltd
Bank of China
Salesforce Inc
Thursday 31st of August
The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI will be published at 1:30 AM GMT today. The index for July increased to 49.3 from 49.2, above market expectations. However, even if the most recent data improves again and reaches the forecast of 49.5, it still indicates a decline in manufacturing activity for the fifth consecutive month.
France's annual inflation rate decreased to 4.3% in July from an increase of 4.5% the previous month. The rate dropped to its lowest level since February of the previous year as a result of falling energy costs and more gradual rises in the cost of manufactured goods and food. Analysts predict a further decline to 4.1% when the new data is released at 6:45 AM GMT. Meanwhile, France's GDP is expected to be confirmed to have grown by 0.90% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter the year before.
With the continued drop in energy costs, the Euro Area's CPI was verified at 5.3% in July 2023, the lowest rate since January 2022. It is anticipated that August's flash report, which will be released at 9:00 AM GMT, will show a decrease to 4.9%.
In June, Personal Income in the US increased by 0.3% from the previous month, slowing from May's 0.5% growth. Meanwhile, Consumer Spending also increased in June by 0.5%, which was beyond market projections of 0.4% growth. Both are expected to have continued growing in July by around 0.3% and 0.4% respectively as shown by the new data released at 12:30 PM GMT.
US Core PCE Prices, due at 12:30 PM GMT, rose by 0.2% month over month in June, slowing from a 0.3% rise in May and in line with market forecasts. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the annual rate, increased by 4.1%, the least since September 2021. A level 0.2% month over month rise, and slightly reduced 4% year over year rise is expected for July.
Major Earnings Reports:
Broadcom Inc
Friday 1st of September
Japan, China, Spain, Switzerland, France, Germany, the Euro Area, Canada, the UK, and the US among others, are all expected to release their Final Manufacturing PMI readings today throughout the day. Recently, manufacturing activity across the board has been shown to be below the par level of 50, suggesting an industry decline. Expectations are for this trend to continue for August.
The Canadian economy expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023, surpassing market expectations and recovering from the previous quarter's halt. The outcome exceeded the BoC's prediction that GDP would be poor over the whole year, giving it more room to resume its tightening cycle should inflation stay stubbornly high. A quarter-over-quarter decline of 0.2% is expected from the new data due at 12:30 PM GMT.
New Non farm Payroll data will be released at 12:30 PM GMT today. After a downwardly revised result of 185K in June, the US economy added 187K jobs in July. Around 180K positions are expected to be added again in August, more than the 70-100K required each month to keep up with the expansion of the working-age population, but it is still lower than the average monthly increase of 312K for the previous 12 months. The US unemployment rate dropped marginally to 3.5% in July from 3.6% in June and analysts predict this will hold steady for August.
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