Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
- U.S. services sector continued to expand in April, with the ISM services PMI at 53.6 versus 54.0 in March.
- The ISM prices index remained at 70.7, its highest level since October 2022, highlighting persistent inflation pressures.
- Employment in the services sector contracted for a second straight month, despite growth across 14 industries.
- U.S. jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week ending May 2, while continuing claims eased slightly to 1.77 million.
- ADP reported 109,000 private-sector jobs added in April, the strongest reading in 15 months and above expectations.
- Hiring improved in March, but job openings continued to trend lower, keeping the labor market in a “low-hire, low-fire” environment.
- The Labor Department said the job openings rate slipped to 4.1% in March, while the hiring rate improved to 3.5%.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said stronger labor-market data allows the Fed to focus more on inflation risks.
- U.S. services inflation and energy costs remain key concerns for the Federal Reserve as gasoline prices continue rising.
- The national average gasoline price reached $4.54 per gallon, up 52% since the initial Iran conflict escalation.
- Economists warned higher fuel prices are acting as a tax on consumers and could weigh on spending ahead.
- Sales of new single-family homes rose to 682,000 in March, beating expectations.
- The median new-home price fell 5.3% month over month to $387,400.
- New-home inventory declined slightly to 481,000 units in March.
- Spirit Airlines’ collapse is expected to reduce competition and potentially push airfares higher as airlines pass rising fuel costs to consumers.
Eurozone
- Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in March as higher fuel costs weighed on spending.
- Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since December 2022 in April, signaling weaker demand ahead.
- Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.0% in April from 1.9% in February due to rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
- ECB official Francois Villeroy de Galhau said markets may be misreading the ECB’s intentions regarding a June rate hike.
- Villeroy stressed that ECB policy decisions remain data-dependent and warned attacks on central-bank independence could damage credibility.
- ECB data showed eurozone wage growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 3.0% in 2025.
- ECB officials remain concerned that persistent energy inflation could fuel higher wage demands and strengthen the case for rate hikes.
Germany
- German manufacturing orders rose 5.0% in March, beating expectations and marking a second consecutive monthly increase.
- Economists said businesses are building inventories amid fears of supply disruptions and higher prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
- Despite stronger orders data, rising energy prices continue to threaten Germany’s industrial recovery.
Switzerland
- Swiss inflation rose to 0.6% in April, the highest level since December 2024, driven by imported energy costs.
- Petroleum prices surged 17% year over year.
- Markets are now pricing in one Swiss National Bank rate hike this year, reducing expectations for negative rates.
United Kingdom
- No major U.K. data release this week, but investors continue monitoring energy-driven inflation pressures and growth risks tied to the Middle East conflict.
Canada
- No major Canadian macroeconomic release dominated this week, though markets remain focused on inflation expectations and energy-price pressures.
Mexico
- The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate to 6.5%, signaling this was likely the final cut in the current easing cycle.
- The board voted 3-2 in favor of the quarter-point cut.
- Policymakers cited softer inflation in April and a larger-than-expected first-quarter economic contraction.
Norway
- Norges Bank raised its key policy rate to 4.25% from 4.00% to contain elevated inflation risks.
- Norway’s core inflation remained at 3.0%, above the central bank’s 2% target for more than four years.
Sweden
- Sweden’s Riksbank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.
- Policymakers maintained a cautious stance despite rising inflation risks tied to the Middle East conflict.
Switzerland
- Swiss inflation climbed to 0.6% in April, reinforcing expectations the SNB may tighten policy later this year.
Australia
- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%.
- The RBA warned inflation risks remain skewed to the upside and are likely to stay above target.
- Household spending rose 1.6% in March, marking the strongest increase in 30 months.
China / Hong Kong
- Hong Kong’s economy expanded 5.9% year over year in Q1 2026, the fastest pace in nearly five years.
- Officials credited exports and AI-related demand as key growth drivers.
- Authorities warned ongoing Middle East tensions remain a downside risk for growth.
Malaysia
- Bank Negara Malaysia kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
- Policymakers cited contained inflation and resilient domestic conditions despite external uncertainties.
- Fuel subsidies continue helping limit inflation pressures.
Indonesia
- Bank Indonesia tightened dollar-purchase rules, limiting monthly domestic FX purchases to $50,000 per person.
- The central bank pledged more FX intervention to support the rupiah, which officials described as undervalued.
- Analysts said the measures may provide temporary support, but broader external risks remain.
Global
- Rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict continue driving inflation pressures globally.
- Central banks across developed and emerging markets remain cautious as higher oil prices complicate policy decisions.
- Markets remain focused on inflation trends, energy prices, and the risk of further monetary tightening globally.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The NZD/CAD and the ZAR/JPY are up more than 1.30%.
- The USD/RON is up more than 1.40%.
- The GBP/UHF is down more than 2.60%.
- The EUR/UHF is down more than 2.40%.
- The CAD/NZD is down more than 1.20%.
Commodities
- US Cocoa prices are up more than 21%.
- Copper and Silver prices are up more than 5%.
- Orange Juice prices are down more than 7.80%.
- Brent prices are down more than 7%.
- WTI prices are down more than 6.50%.
- Coffee prices are down more than 4.80%.
Indices
- The KOSPI index is up more than 11%.
- The Japan 225 index is up more than 5.50%.
- The Dax index is up more than 4%.
- The VIX index is down more than 8.50%.
Shares
Tops
- Datadog: +41.85%
- DaVita: +29.63%
- Fortinet: +26.84%
- Super Micro Computer: +24.93%
- Healthpeak Properties: +22.80%
- Micron Technology: +22.07%
- Sandisk: +20.45%
- Smarfit Escola de Gastica e Danca: +20.05%
- Fresnillo: +17.07%
- Endeavour Mining: +16.41%
- Rolls-Royce: +14.60%
- MTU Aero Engines: +13.48%
- Safran: +11.62%
Flops
- Ismed: -23.41%
- Zoetis: -23.44%
- CDW: -18.49%
- Arista Networks: -17.59%
- Cencora: -16.98%
- Huntington Ingalis Industries: -13.87%
- Pool: -10.93%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 11 May
- 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 1%
- Forecast: 0.8%
- 02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (April)
- Previous: 3.98M
- Forecast: 4.05M
Tuesday 12 May
- 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May)
- Previous: -12.5%
- Forecast: 1.1%
- 01:30 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (April)
- Previous: -29
- Forecast: -32
- 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)
- Previous: -17.2
- Forecast: -26
- 12:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 2.6%
- Forecast: 2.6%
- 12:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 3.3%
- Forecast: 3.6%
Wednesday 13 May
- 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (April)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.4%
Thursday 14 May
- 06:00 AM - UK - GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q1)
- Previous: 1%
- Forecast: 1.4%
- 06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (March)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (April)
- Previous: 1.7%
- Forecast: 0.1%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 11 May
- Hannover Rueck
- Gold Resource
Tuesday 12 May
- JD.com
- KBC Group
- ThyssenKrupp
- ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios
- Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
- Bayer
- Phoenix
Wednesday 13 May
- Alibaba
- CISCO
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
- ABN AMRO
- Siemens
- E.ON
- Deutsche Telekom
- Allianz
- RWE
- Alstom
Thursday 14 May
- Honda Motor
- Telefonica
- 3i Group
Friday 15 May
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
- Mizuho Financial
- Semapa-Sociedade De Investim
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 08, 2026
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