On Monday 31st: China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI is due, along with Italy’s and the EU’s latest GDP and Inflation figures
On Tuesday 1st: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is released, the RBA meets on monetary policy, the US Jolts Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI is published and the BoJ releases minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting.
On Wednesday 2nd: Swiss Consumer Confidence, and the US ADP Employment Change are both due.
On Thursday 3rd: Balance of Trade reports are due for Australia and Germany, the BoE meets on monetary policy, and the US ISM Services PMI is published.
On Friday 4th: The RBA publishes its monetary policy minutes, Canadian and US employment data are due including US Nonfarm Payrolls, while Canada's Ivey PMI is also due.
Weekly outlook
A massive week lies ahead for investors and traders, with a number of notable companies scheduled to release their quarterly earnings, as well as some highly anticipated monetary policy meetings and employment data from the United States, to mention a few.
The world's biggest company by market cap, Apple, will disclose fiscal third-quarter results on Friday after US markets close.
After a disappointing result in the previous quarter, the IT behemoth surpassed a 3 trillion market valuation in July. The company unveiled its Vision Pro headset and was said to create its own Apple GPT AI big language model earlier this year, and investors will be eagerly anticipating the most recent earnings. Zacks Investment Research reports that 12 analysts have collectively predicted a quarterly EPS of $1.20 EPS, unchanged from the $1.20 during the same period last year.
Monday 31st of July
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 49 in June from 48.8 in May, in line with market expectations but nevertheless indicating a third consecutive month of industrial activity decline as the result was below 50. When the newest data is published at 1:30 AM GMT, expectations are for a dip to 48.
Italy reports its GDP and preliminary Inflation figures today from 8:00 AM GMT. The economy grew 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of last year, and Q2 is expected to show annualized growth of around 1.6% as well. Quarter over quarter growth is forecast of around 0.2%. Inflation is thought to continue its trajectory downwards from 6.4% to around 6.2%.
Early GDP and Inflation data from the EU is to be published at 9:00 AM GMT. Annual growth in the Euro Area was 1.1% in Q1, above the 1% increase predicted by economists. Slower annualized growth of 0.6% is forecast for the second quarter, and 0.2% growth is expected quarter over quarter. July Inflation is tipped to be slowly falling in the latest flash reports, from 5.5% down to around 5.2% and the core rate from 5.5% to 5.4%.
Major Earnings Report:
Heineken
Tuesday 1st of August
In June 2023, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 in May to 50.5, which was still higher than the market estimate of 50.2. However the index is expected to dip below 50 to 49 for July, when the report is published at 1:45 PM GMT.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet on monetary policy again this week. At its meeting in July, the RBA kept its cash rate at 4.1%, having increased it by 25 basis points in June and by a total of 400 points since the beginning of this cycle of policy tightening. The board said that it required more time to evaluate the effects of previous rises and that the nation's inflation had peaked, as seen by the monthly CPI indicator's further decline of 5.6% in May. Analysts expect the RBA to hike again this month to 4.35% with its decision to be made public at 4:30 AM GMT.
The US Jolts Job Openings report is due to be released today at 2:00 PM GMT. Job openings dropped by 496 thousand from April to May, landing at 9.824 million. While numbers are falling, vacancies remained considerably above levels prior to the pandemic, providing more evidence of a tight labor market and giving the Federal Reserve more room to continue hiking interest rates. A further drop to 9.5 million is expected for June.
In June, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46 from 46.9 in May, below estimates of 47. The data indicated that the manufacturing sector has been contracting at a higher pace than it has for a few years, but a slight rebound to 46.5 is forecast for July when the data is released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Bank of Japan monetary policy minutes are to be published at 11:50 PM GMT today. It will be a thorough account of the BOJ Policy Board's meeting that offers in-depth insights into the economic circumstances that affected their choice of where to set interest rates among other things.
Major Earnings Reports:
Merck & Co
Toyota
Hang Seng Bank
Pfizer
Advanced Micro Devices
HSBC
Starbucks
Uber
Wednesday 2nd of August
In the second quarter of 2023, the Swiss consumer confidence index registered a value of -29.7, which was almost unchanged from the first quarter's -30.1 rating. Q3 is forecast to show some improvement in the reading to -22 when the report comes out at 7:00 AM GMT, but this is still a long way behind the long term average of -6.
The US ADP Employment Change report is due to be published at 12:15 PM GMT today. The 228K jobs added by private companies in June well exceeded expectations, and this was the biggest employment growth since February 2022. Most notably there were 373K new positions created in the booming service industry. 210K new jobs are expected for July.
Major Earnings Reports:
Qualcomm
CVS Health Corp
Shopify
PayPal
Thursday 3rd of August
As exports again increased more than imports, Australia's trade surplus grew to AUD 11.79 billion in May, the largest surplus in eight months and more than was predicted by the market. When June’s Balance of Trade is released at 1:30 AM GMT, a slight increase is forecast up to AUD 11.8 billion.
Germany's trade surplus declined to EUR 14.4 billion in May, down from an upwardly corrected EUR 16.5 billion the month prior. The decrease in exports and the first increase in imports in three months resulted in the narrowest trade surplus since last December. When the newest reading is released at 6:00 AM GMT, the surplus is however tipped to expand to around EUR 19 billion.
The Bank of England meets on monetary policy today with the decision statement due to be published at 11:00 AM GMT. At its meeting in June, the BoE increased its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.0%. Borrowing rates are now at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis in an attempt to tackle persistent inflation. If the current inflationary pressures continue, policymakers have also promised to deliver more rate rises, as is likely the case at this meeting. A 25 basis point bump is predicted again this week.
The services industry in the US had its greatest growth in four months in June, as the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly surged to 53.9 from 50.3 in May. July’s national figures are expected to be published at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Apple
Alibaba
Amazon
ConocoPhillips Co
Anheuser Busch
Airbnb
BMW
Friday 4th of August
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its minutes from its previous monetary policy meeting. The minutes, released at 1:30 AM GMT, will show a detailed report on the meeting of the RBA, providing insights into the economic conditions that influenced the board's decision on where to set interest rates for the coming period and what may lay ahead.
A range of Canadian employment data is to be released today from 12:30 PM GMT. In June, Canada's Unemployment Rate increased from 5.2% to 5.4%, the highest level since February 2022. It’s just the second monthly gain since August of 2022, and the rate was still much below pre-pandemic norms. Another rise to 5.5% is expected for July. Canada's labor force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points in June, to 65.7%, the highest level since February. This represents an increase of just over 31 thousand people actively seeking employment. A slight rise is forecast for July up to 65.8%.
US employment data is also due at 12:30 PM GMT. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.6% in June from a seven-month high of 3.7% in May. The July rate is tipped to hold steady at 3.6%. Following a downwardly revised 306K in May, Nonfarm payrolls showed the US economy had added 209K positions in June. It was the lowest level since December of 2020, but remains more than twice the 70K-100K required per month to maintain pace with the growth of the working-age population. Around 184K more positions are forecast for July and annualized wage growth is expected to dip slightly to 4.3% from 4.4%.
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