On Monday 7th: The UK’s Halifax House Price Index is due.
On Tuesday 8th: Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index and NAB Index for Business Confidence are published, along with the Chinese Balance of Trade.
On Wednesday 9th: Chinese Inflation and Producer Price Index data are both due.
On Thursday 10th: The US publishes its latest inflation figures.
On Friday 11th: The UK publishes a range of GDP data, plus Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, while the US will release its PPI and Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data.
Weekly outlook
A comparatively quieter week for economic news and earnings releases this week, but there is still plenty for investors and traders to look forward to. Notable earnings include some of the larger pharmaceutical companies, such as Eli Lilly & Co and BioNTech among others. However, many will be keeping an eye out for the second quarter results of the entertainment giant, Disney, published on Wednesday after market close.
Last quarter, Disney’s adjusted earnings per share, excluding non-recurring items, decreased 14% to $0.93, while unadjusted earnings per share increased from $0.26 to $0.69. Some reports have indicated that attendance at the company’s theme parks has been on the decline in recent months, along with an expected dip in subscriptions to their streaming services, which could obviously prove damaging. According to Zacks Investment Research, the average EPS expectation for the quarter is $0.99 based on predictions from 8 analysts. A drop from the same quarter a year ago, when the EPS was $1.09.
Big news to watch this week also comes from the US, as inflation data will hopefully confirm the positive impact of the Fed’s push to tighten monetary policy again last week. The Fed’s Board decided to resume raising rates again by 25 basis points for July, to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, after pausing the cycle the month prior. The annual rate of inflation in the US has dropped to 3% from more than 9% in June of last year, marking 12 consecutive months of decreases after interest rates were raised from almost 0%.
Monday 7th of August
The UK’s Halifax house price index, due at 6:00 AM GMT today, fell by 2.6% annually in June, the largest annual decline since June 2011. The strain on household finances brought on by persistent inflation and ongoing policy tightening continues to pressure housing demand, and a further 3.1% annualized drop is forecast for July.
Major Earnings Reports:
BioNTech
Tyson Foods
Tuesday 8th of August
Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index is due to be published at 12:30 AM GMT today. As inflation continues to slow and the RBA held off on additional monetary policy tightening in July, the index increased by 2.7% month-over-month to 81.3 from 78.1 in June. Although interest rates were held steady again earlier this month, a dip to 80.7 is expected for August.
Meanwhile, released concurrently, the NAB Index for Business Confidence in Australia rose to 0 in June, from a downwardly revised -3 the month before. Analysts have this number dipping to -3 for July.
The Chinese Balance of Trade is due to be published at 3:00 AM GMT today. As a result of persistently poor domestic and international demand, China's trade surplus decreased to USD 70.62 billion in June from USD 97.41 billion in the same month the previous year.
Major Earnings Reports:
Eli Lilly & Co
China Telecom
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
UPS
Zoetis
Bayer
Wednesday 9th of August
Chinese Inflation and Producer Price Index data are to be released today at 1:30 AM GMT. In June, Inflation unexpectedly hit 0%, defying market expectations and May's 0.2% increase. In July, prices are tipped to drop into deflation territory at around an annualized -0.3%. Meanwhile, Producer Prices are also coming down, having dipped 5.4% in June, the nine months in a row of deflation in the index.
Major Earnings Reports:
Vestas Wind Systems
China Unicom
Disney
Sony
Honda
Thursday 10th of August
The US annual inflation rate dropped to 3% in June from 4% in May. This was the lowest rate since March 2021 and along with the core rate, which fell from 5.3% to 4.8%, the drop beat most forecasts. Both rates are expected to fall further for July when the reports are released at 12:30 PM GMT, to around 2.8% and 4.7% respectively.
Major Earnings Reports:
Novo Nordisk
Alibaba Group Holding
China Mobile
Orsted
NIO
Friday 11th of August
The UK publishes GDP data from June today at 6:00 AM GMT. Rising borrowing rates and persistently high inflation have weighed on activity and demand in the UK, slowing GDP growth to 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023. This was the worst rate of increase in two years but is to be expected given the pace of monetary policy tightening. Expectations are for month-over-month growth of 0.1%, -0.8% annualized growth for the second quarter and a stable 0.1% growth compared to the first quarter.
Also from the UK and reported simultaneously, Industrial Production fell 0.6% month over month in May, after a downwardly revised 0.2% loss in April, while Manufacturing Production was also down 0.2% month over month. Both are forecast to rebound slightly for June, with 0.1% and 0.2% growth respectively.
From the US, following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in May, US Producer Prices for final demand inched up 0.1% month-over-month in June, and are expected to show a similar gain in July. The most recent PPI data, including the core rate, which strips out food and energy, are due to be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
At 2:00 PM GMT, we’ll also have the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index from the US. The initial July reading of 72.6 was revised down to 71.6. However, the ongoing deceleration in inflation and stable labor markets contributed to the healthiest looking figure since October 2021. A small dip to 70.9 is forecast for August.
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