On Monday 14th: Japan reports its GDP figures.
On Tuesday 15th: The RBA releases its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting minutes, China's Industrial Production is due, along with UK employment data, Germany’s ZEW, Canadian Inflation and US Retail Sales.
On Wednesday 16th: The RBNZ meets on Monetary Policy, UK Inflation figures are due, as well as US Building Permits, the Fed’s Monetary Policy meeting minutes and Japan’s Trade Balance.
On Thursday 17th: Australia publishes employment data, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is due and Japanese Inflation data is released.
On Friday 18th: UK Retail Sales and Euro Area Inflation figures are confirmed.
Weekly outlook
It's a big week ahead for economic news that will be of interest to investors and traders. We’re past the halfway mark on earnings season, but there’s still some interesting companies to watch. Walmart and Home Depot are some of the retailers that will be worth keeping track of this week.
After last quarter when Home Depot revealed its worst revenue shortfall in more than 20 years and reduced its outlook. Zacks Investment Research currently predicts an earnings per share of $4.46 for the quarter, from $5.05 during the same period previous year. Meanwhile, Walmart beat estimates last quarter, and is hoping to do the same for Q2. Zacks expects EPS to be around $1.67, compared to the same period last year of $1.77.
From the UK this week, key economic data will hopefully confirm the positive results of the BoE’s aggressive monetary policy tightening strategy. Employment data, Inflation figures, and Retail Sales will all form part of the picture that the bank will use to decide the future of interest rates at the next meeting in September.
Monday 14th of August
The Japanese economy expanded by 2.7% in the first quarter on an annualized basis, and this followed an upwardly revised 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. The upturn was backed by a rise in private consumption once all pandemic precautions were lifted, and economists expect growth to continue at a rate of around 3.2% when the preliminary data is released at 11:50 PM GMT today. Quarter over quarter growth of around 0.8% is also forecast.
Major Earnings Reports:
CSL Limited
Tuesday 15th of August
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest Monetary Policy meeting will be published today at 1:30 AM GMT. The RBA defied market expectations again and maintained its cash rate at 4.1% at its last meeting earlier this month, prolonging the rate pause for a second month running. Despite pointing out that the country's cost pressures are cooling, the central bank acknowledged that inflation at 6% was still far too high and more may need to be done to reach the 2%-3% target rate.
China's Industrial Production increased by 4.4% in June year over year, above analysts' expectations after a 3.5% increase in May. When the most recent findings are released at 2:00 AM GMT, further growth is tipped of around 4.7% for July.
Again from China, and with sales slowing in a number of major sectors, Retail Sales growth in June fell drastically to 3.1% year on year, the weakest performance since last December. A slight rebound to 3.6% is forecast for July.
A range of employment data is due to be made available from the UK at 6:00 AM GMT today. In the three months from March to May, the unemployment rate in the UK hit 4%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2021. At the same time, employment levels surged by 102 thousand to 33.05 million, mostly due to part-time workers. The year-over-year rise in wages (excluding bonuses) over the three months ending in May was 6.9%. This week, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%, Average Earnings may dip a little to 6.8% and around 51 thousand new jobs are forecast to be added.
Germany's economic sentiment index, the ZEW, fell to -14.7 in July from -8.5 in June, as investors at the time anticipated a further worsening in the economic situation by year's end. Owing to the assumption of increasing short-term interest rates in the Eurozone and the US, morale touched its lowest level since late last year. The new report, due at 9:00 AM GMT, is tipped to show a further decline to around -16 for August.
Canada’s latest Inflation data is due to be reported at 12:30 PM GMT today. As gas prices continued to fall, the annual inflation rate dropped to 2.8% in June from 3.4% in the previous month, while the core rate also fell from 3.7% to 3.2%. Economists expect the rates to hold steady with little change for July.
The US reports its Retail Sales figures for July today at 12:30 PM GMT. After an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in May, sales increased by 0.2% month over month in June, falling short of expectations. The figures showed that consumer spending was still strong, despite rising interest rates coupled with higher than usual inflation, and expectations are for further growth of around 0.4% month over month for July.
Major Earnings Reports:
Home Depot
Wednesday 16th of August
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to meet on Monetary Policy today, with the decision to be published at 2:00 AM GMT and Press Conference to follow an hour later. As was widely anticipated, the RBNZ kept the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5% in July. Since October 2021, the central bank has increased borrowing rates by 525 basis points and sent the economy into a technical recession this year. This week, expectations are for rates to again be on hold.
UK CPI figures are due at 6:00 AM GMT today. The index fell to 7.9% in June, the lowest level since March 2022, mostly owing to falling fuel costs. In addition, the core rate, which does not include food and energy prices, decreased to 6.9% from a three-decade high of 7.1% in May. A fall to around 7.4% is expected for the main rate for July, while the core rate may fall to 6.8% year over year.
After reaching a seven-month high of 1.496 million in May, Building Permits in the US fell 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.441 million in June, according to updated stats. A rebound to 1.46 million is forecast for July, when the results are published at 12:30 PM GMT.
The Federal Reserve publishes the most recent FOMC Monetary Policy meeting minutes today at 6:00 PM GMT. Following a brief break in June, the Fed continued its tightening campaign, noting that the economy has been growing at a modest pace. In July, the board increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.5%, in line with market expectations. Many investors will look to these minutes for signs of what will take place at the next meeting in September.
In contrast to market expectations, Japan's trade balance unexpectedly switched to a surplus of JPY 43.05 billion in June from May’s deficit of JPY 1,374.99 billion year over year. This marked the first surplus for almost two years. The updated number is due to be published at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Tencent
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing
Cisco Systems
Target
Thursday 17th of August
Australia will release its employment figures for July at 1:30 AM GMT today. The labour market has remained strong despite efforts from the RBA to cool the economy. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3.5% in June, and is expected to also remain steady for July. Employment also rose by 32,600, to 14.05 million in June above market predictions, while around 25,100 more positions are expected to be added for July.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States was unchanged at -13.5 in July from -13.7 in June, and continued to indicate a general decline in Philadelphia's manufacturing activity. Expectations are for a slight improvement to -10 when the result is published at 12:30 PM GMT.
The latest Inflation figures for Japan are due at 11:30 PM GMT today. The core consumer price index, which includes fuel prices but excludes fresh food, increased 3.3% from a year earlier in June, while the regular inflation rate also edged up from 3.2% to 3.3%. This was the fifteenth consecutive month of inflation rates lying above the target rate of the BoJ, posing a challenge to the board's dedication to maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy.
Major Earnings Reports:
Cnooc
Walmart
Friday 18th of August
After a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in May, retail sales in the UK rebounded in June, growing by 0.7% from the previous month. Increases were noted across the board, from food to non-food to online and non-store retailing, making this the third consecutive positive month in retail commerce. The new data is due to be published at 6:00 AM GMT.
Preliminary estimates are expected to show that the annual inflation rate in the Euro Area slowed for a third consecutive month to 5.3% in July from 5.5% in June, in line with market forecasts. It will have been the lowest reading since January of 2022. Confirmation of the newest figure is expected to be published at 9:00 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Deere & Co
Estee Lauder Companies Inc
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