Wall Street Holiday Slows the DAX: Benchmark Index Defends 26,000 Points in Technical No Man's Land
The German benchmark index started the new trading week with its handbrake engaged. Without the guiding impulses from US stock exchanges, which were closed for a holiday, the DAX recorded a slight setback of 0.15 percent and barely saved itself above the psychologically essential 26,000 mark at 26,006.53 points. While the EuroStoxx 50 and the MDAX booked minimal gains, the domestic stock market barometer lacked the necessary traction. From a technical chart perspective, the index had already bounced off the 21-day moving average before the weekend—this short-term trend indicator is currently acting as a massive lid, blocking further recovery attempts.
Oil Price Shock Solidifies: Brent Crude as a Merciless Drag
The fundamental center of gravity for the German equity market remains the escalating energy sector. Brent crude is now trading beyond the $97 mark, ruthlessly feeding global inflation and interest rate concerns. This toxic price development nips any emerging buying appetite in the bud, as rapidly rising energy costs threaten corporate profit margins. Even the clear price gains on the technology-heavy Asian stock exchanges, particularly in South Korea and Japan, fizzled out completely ineffectively on the Frankfurt trading floor and could not compensate for this fundamental heaviness.
Return of US Investors: German Export Data as the Next Acid Test
For today, Tuesday, hopes rest on the return of Wall Street, which must provide the market with urgently needed directional impulses. Concurrently, the German trade balance moves into absolute macro focus. A moderate decline in exports (-0.2 percent) and imports (-1.2 percent) is expected, which should provide initial unvarnished clues as to how strongly the high oil price is already impacting domestic foreign trade. The data cocktail is supplemented by groundbreaking trade figures from China as well as various appearances by representatives of the ECB and the Bank of England. The all-decisive core question is: Will the DAX manage a technical chart breakout with the fresh US tailwind, or will the latent oil price pressure finally force the index below the 26,000-point mark?
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