Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Europe
● ECB raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, with the main refinancing rate at 2.50%, the marginal lending facility at 2.90% and the deposit rate at 2.65%.
● The ECB warned that inflation pressures are likely to remain persistent, prompting markets to price in further monetary tightening.
● Eurozone GDP growth was revised higher to 0.6% in Q2 from 0.4%, driven by stronger exports and consumer spending.
● Turkey’s central bank kept its one-week repo rate unchanged at 37%, while warning that elevated energy prices linked to the Iran war remain an upside risk to inflation.
● Turkey raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 28%, up from 26%.
United States
● U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved close to 5% as higher oil prices reinforced concerns over persistent inflation.
● U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from 0.1% in July, while annual PPI inflation reached 5.4%.
● U.S. 30-year mortgage rates climbed above 7% to 7.07%, reversing their recent decline as the Iran conflict disrupted oil supplies and increased inflation expectations.
● Existing-home sales dropped 2% in August to an annualised 3.98 million, the lowest level in more than a year.
● Despite weaker sales, the median existing-home price increased 1.6% year-on-year to $429,100.
● The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose to 108.53 in August, extending its recent recovery and standing 2% above last year’s level.
● The improvement was supported by fewer involuntary part-time workers and a decline in the number of consumers reporting that jobs are difficult to find.
● Consumer sentiment remains relatively weak despite low unemployment and continued economic growth.
● Around 34% of workers saw their wages fail to keep pace with inflation between the end of 2020 and the end of 2025, highlighting continued pressure on household purchasing power.
● Broader household costs, including housing prices and borrowing costs, remain a source of financial pressure that is not fully captured by standard inflation measures.
Japan
● Markets are increasingly pricing a Bank of Japan rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting, with expectations for another increase before year-end.
● Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were interpreted as indirect pressure on the BoJ to move towards higher rates.
● A more hawkish BoJ outlook could support the yen but also increase volatility across Japanese bonds and equities.
Australia
● RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted growing frustration over the persistence of inflation.
● Underlying inflation has remained above the RBA’s 2%-3% target range in 17 of the past 20 quarters.
● Markets and economists expect the RBA to deliver a fourth rate hike this year at its September 29 meeting.
China
● China’s producer-price inflation accelerated 3.8% year-on-year in August, reflecting the impact of higher oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions.
● Consumer inflation rose 0.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations.
● Investors remain cautious about the sustainability of China’s reflation as the prolonged property downturn continues to weigh on domestic demand.
South Korea
● The Bank of Korea warned about risks linked to highly leveraged ETF investments in major technology stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
● The central bank also highlighted the potential for greater foreign-exchange volatility as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s future rate path.
Global Markets
● Higher oil prices following renewed Middle East tensions are driving a broader reassessment of inflation and interest-rate expectations.
● Rising Treasury yields and higher mortgage costs highlight how quickly energy shocks can feed into financial conditions and borrowing costs.
● Central banks across several major economies are facing renewed pressure to keep monetary policy restrictive as inflation proves slower to return to target than expected.
This Week’s Market Movers
● The Japanese yen rallied close to a seven-month peak against the U.S. dollar.
● The JPY/NZD is up more than 1.9%.
● The JPY/CHF and the JPY/AUD are up more than 1.5%.
● The USD/SEK, the GBP/SEK, the JPY/CAD and the EUR/SEK are up more than 1.3%.
● The USD/CHF is up more than 0.8%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 3%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 2.9%.
● The SEK/JPY is down more than 2.5%.
● The EUR/JPY and the GBP/JPY are down more than 1%.
● London Gas Oil prices are up more than 13.2%.
● Brent, Dutch TTF Natural Gas and WTI prices are up more than 12%.
● Oats prices are up more than 9.6%.
● Paladium prices are down more than 7.4%.
● Orange juice prices are down more than 6.3%.
● Natural Gas prices are down more than 4.9%.
● The Vix index is up more than 16.50%.
● The Kospi index is up more than 3.80%.
● The IDX30 index is down more than 3.40%.
Shares
Tops
● Skyworks Solutions: +17.52%
● Corning: +11.73%
● Lumentum: +10.42%
● Advanced Micro Devices: +10.40%
Flops
● The Cooper Companies: -23.32%
● Lulumon Athletica: -20.44%
● Factset Research Systems: -15.99%
● PTC: -14.24%
● Fair Isaac: -14.14%
● Thomson Reuters: -13.92%
● Amgen: -13.88%
● Shopify: -13.22%
● Adobe: -12.92%
● Gartner: -12.71%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 14 September
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 3%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
Tuesday 15 September
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (August)
○ Previous: 4.5%
○ Forecast: 4.8%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (August)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.8%
● 06:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (July)
○ Previous: 4.9%
○ Forecast: 4.9%
● 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)
○ Previous: 34.2
○ Forecast: 21
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: ¥-634.5B
○ Forecast: ¥-650.0B
Wednesday 16 September
● 06:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
● 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (August)
○ Previous: -0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 06:00 PM - American - Fed Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 4%
● 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Economic Projections
● 06:30 PM - American - Fed Press Conference
Thursday 17 September
● 11:00 AM - European - BoE Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (August)
○ Previous: 1.433M
○ Forecast: 1.41M
● 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (August)
○ Previous: 1.239M
○ Forecast: 1.35M
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 2%
○ Forecast: 2.1%
Friday 18 September
● 03:00 AM - Japanese - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 1%
○ Forecast: 1.25%
● 06:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (August)
○ Previous: -0.5%%
○ Forecast: 0.7%
No Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of September 11, 2026
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.