Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global Markets
● The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8%, saying the global economy is proving more resilient than expected.
● AI-related investment is supporting global growth, particularly in the U.S. and economies involved in electronics manufacturing.
● The OECD warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices and other geopolitical risks could weaken the global outlook.
● The rapid expansion of AI and data-centre infrastructure is becoming a major source of investment and demand, but also increasing pressure on labour, electricity and land.
● Global investment in U.S. data centres and AI infrastructure is projected to reach $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032, raising concerns over debt exposure if the investment boom loses momentum.
United States
● Fed Governor Michael Barr said further rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
● Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also warned that additional tightening could be required, arguing that inflationary shocks may prove more persistent than expected.
● Tariffs, Middle East tensions, the Ukraine war and strong AI-related investment demand are adding to price pressures, according to Fed officials.
● Markets sharply increased expectations for an October Fed hike, with the probability rising to around 55% from about 9% a month earlier.
● U.S. jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week through September 19, below the 201,000 expected, while continuing claims edged up to 1.72 million.
● U.S. mortgage rates reached 7%, their highest level since January 2025, increasing pressure on housing affordability and demand.
● The scale of AI investment is creating capacity constraints across electricity, labour and land markets, while growing reliance on debt financing among major technology companies could increase financial-sector risks if the investment cycle reverses.
Europe
● Germany’s business climate improved for a fifth consecutive month, with the Ifo index rising to 89.9 in September from 88.8 in August.
● German economic institutes raised their 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.7%, supported by stronger exports.
● Germany’s recovery still faces structural challenges and high energy costs, which could limit the pace of expansion.
● Switzerland and Sweden kept interest rates unchanged, while Norway raised its policy rate to 4.5% from 4.25%.
● Norway’s central bank said tighter policy is needed to bring inflation back to its 2% target, citing strong wage growth and high energy costs.
● The eurozone’s consumer-confidence indicator fell to -16.5 in September from -15.5, with renewed energy-price increases weighing on sentiment.
Canada
● Canadian retail sales fell 0.7% in July to C$73.7 billion, marking the first monthly decline of the year, with weakness across eight of nine sectors.
● An early estimate points to a 1.3% rebound in retail sales in August.
● Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said future rate decisions will depend on how households and businesses respond to higher energy prices and trade uncertainty.
● Macklem warned that inflation could rise above 3% if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, increasing the risk of more persistent price pressures.
● He also warned that Canadian growth could slow below a 1% annualised rate in Q4 if U.S. and Canadian tariffs remain in place.
Asia
● Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate at 5.75%, while leaving its deposit and lending facilities unchanged at 4.75% and 6.50%, respectively.
● The decision reflects the central bank’s focus on stabilising the rupiah, keeping inflation within target and supporting economic growth.
This Week’s Market Movers
● The U.S. dollar surged to a two-month high against major currencies, driven by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes and rising European energy costs, as Brent crude climbed past $100 a barrel.
● The USD/MXN is up more than 3%.
● The EUR/MXN is up more than 2.4%.
● The USD/JPY is up more than 1.5%.
● The USD/CAD and the CHF/JPY are up more than 1%.
● The MXN/JPY is down more than 1.6%.
● The NZD/HKD is down more than 1.4%.
● The AUD/USD and the NZD/USD are down more than 1.3%.
● The JPY/CHF is down more than 1%.
● Natural Gas prices are up more than 8.9%.
● Orange Juice prices are up more than 6.9%.
● Rough Rice and US Cocoa prices are up more than 5%.
● Heating Oil prices are down more than 7.9%.
● Silver and Palladium prices are down more than 4.3%.
● The Kospi index is up more than 7%.
● The IDX30 index is down more than 4%.
Shares
Tops
● Moderna: +23.25%
● Astera: +22.81%
● Strategy: +22.20%
● Intel: +17.09%
● ARM: +15.54%
● AMD: +15.44%
● Cadence Design Systems: +14.69%
● Monolithic Power Systems: +14.19%
Flops
● Gen Digital: -23.63%
● First Solar: -14.42%
● Paychex: -12.81%
● Volkswagen: -12.61%
● Orange: -12.19%
● Stellantis: -10.64%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 29 September
● 04:30 AM - Australian - RBA Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 4.35%
○ Forecast: 4.35%
● 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (August)
○ Previous: 7.271M
○ Forecast: 7.24M
Wednesday 30 September
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 50
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 49.0
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (September)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 06:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (September)
○ Previous: 2.4%
○ Forecast: 2.8%
● 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (September)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
● 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (August)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q2)
○ Previous: 2.1%
○ Forecast: 1.5%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (August)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (August)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
○ Previous: 22
○ Forecast: 23
Thursday 01 October
● 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: A$1.923B
○ Forecast: A$1.5B
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 50.8
● 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 57.1
○ Forecast: 56.5
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast: 54
Friday 02 October
● 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (September)
○ Previous: 35.5
○ Forecast: 36
● 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (September)
○ Previous: 3.2%
○ Forecast: 3.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (September)
○ Previous: 162K
○ Forecast: 90.0K
● 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (September)
○ Previous: 4.1%
○ Forecast: 4.1%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 29 September
● Carmax
Wednesday 30 September
● Micron Technology
Thursday 01 October
● NIKE
● Accenture
● McCormick & Co
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of September 25, 2026
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