Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● The International Monetary Fund warned that global energy buffers continue to shrink as the Strait of Hormuz disruption extends into its sixth month.
● Prolonged supply risks continue to threaten inflation and global economic growth despite resilient activity in major economies.
Eurozone
● Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, outperforming the U.S. economy on an annualized basis.
● Lower inflation, resilient manufacturing and strong activity in Ireland supported regional growth.
● The outlook remains clouded by geopolitical tensions, extreme weather and the possibility of additional ECB rate increases.
● ECB data suggest wage growth will slow further this year despite higher inflation.
● ECB President Christine Lagarde said there is still little evidence that higher inflation is feeding into wages.
● Markets continue to expect another ECB rate increase at the September meeting.
Germany
● German business confidence improved for a third consecutive month in July.
● Manufacturing, services, retail and construction all reported stronger sentiment.
● Expectations were supported by the government's proposed tax and labor-market reforms aimed at boosting growth.
Ireland
● Ireland's economy expanded 3.9% during the second quarter, driven mainly by technology and AI-related services.
● Despite the strong quarterly rebound, the country's central bank continues to forecast an economic contraction for 2026.
United Kingdom
● The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expects the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged through 2026 and 2027.
● Inflation is forecast to rise temporarily before gradually returning to the 2% target over the coming years.
● U.K. inflation remained below both U.S. and eurozone inflation during June.
United States
● The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
● The decision was not unanimous, with three policymakers supporting another rate increase.
● Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced criticism from investors after providing limited guidance on future policy.
● Markets reduced expectations for a September rate increase following the meeting.
● The Fed's preferred inflation measure continued to cool in June, with both headline and core PCE inflation moving lower.
● U.S. consumer confidence weakened in July as households became less optimistic about business conditions and the labor market.
● The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades following the Fed decision.
● The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.66%, the highest level in a year, according to Freddie Mac.
● Pending home sales continued to weaken, reaching their lowest level since early April.
● Initial jobless claims increased modestly, ending a six-week decline.
● Continuing unemployment claims edged lower, suggesting layoffs remain limited.
● Several large U.S. companies announced renewed hiring plans, particularly in artificial intelligence, cloud computing and logistics, indicating labor demand remains solid in selected sectors.
Japan
● The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% following June's interest-rate increase.
● One board member voted in favor of another rate hike, highlighting growing concern about inflation.
● Policymakers continue to monitor the weak yen, which could increase imported inflation.
● Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities remain ready to intervene if currency volatility intensifies.
● Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi proposed reducing the sales tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years beginning in 2027.
● Economists believe the BOJ could resume raising rates as early as September if the yen weakens further.
Australia
● Australia's annual inflation slowed to 3.8% in June, while core inflation also eased slightly.
● Lower-than-expected inflation reduced immediate pressure for another rate increase.
● Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock nevertheless warned inflation remains too high.
● Policymakers said further tightening remains possible if price pressures persist, particularly given weak productivity growth.
Mexico
● Mexico's economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter, recording its fastest quarterly growth since 2020.
● Manufacturing, services and agriculture all contributed to the broad-based recovery.
Indonesia
● Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned, with Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti appointed as acting governor.
● The leadership change raised investor concerns about central bank independence.
● The announcement came amid continued weakness in the rupiah and sharp declines in Indonesian equity markets.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The yen spiked 3% to its highest level against the dollar in two months on Thursday. Traders are monitoring possible government intervention.
● The EUR/RUB is up more than 2.9%.
● The USD/RUB is up more than 1.8%.
● The NZD/USD is up more than 1.6%.
● The JPY/CAD is up more than 1.5%.
● The EUR/USD is up more than 1%.
● The TRY/JPY is down more than 2.5%.
● The USD/SEK is down more than 2%.
● The USD/JPY is down more than 1.9%.
Commodities
● Palladium prices are up more than 3.8%.
● Coffee and Orange juice prices are up more than 3.3%.
● Copper and Platinum prices are up more than 2.3%.
● Dutch TTF Natural Gas prices are down more than 9.7%.
● Brent prices are down more than 7.4%.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 4.8%.
Indices
● The DAX index is up more than 2.4%.
● The UK100 index is up more than 1.6%.
● The CAC40 index is up more than 1.3%.
● The KOSPI index and the Bist100 index are down more than 5.9%.
● The VIX index is down more than 3%.
Shares
Tops
● Cognizant Technology Solutions: +25.31%
● Garmin: +23.93%
● Workday: +23.65%
● Baxter International: +23.44%
● Kering: +21.71%
● SAP: +21.51%
● PTC: +20.57%
● Capgemini: +18.52%
● Microsoft: +18.22%
● Sage Group: +17.75%
● MBRF Global Foods: +15.20%
● TOTVS: +15.08%
● Burberry Group: +15.08%
● Scout24: +14.89%
Flops
● C.H Robinson Worldwide: -28.51%
● Lennox International: -22.39%
● Sandisk: -20.52%
● Rentokil Initial: -18.04%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 03 August
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
○ Previous: 49.7
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)
○ Previous: 54.3
○ Forecast: 55
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 50.0
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 52.2
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 52.0
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
○ Previous: 53.3
○ Forecast: 53
Tuesday 04 August
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 53.2
● 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (June)
○ Previous: 7.594M
○ Forecast: 7.3M
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 52.6
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 50.5
○ Forecast: 53.0
Wednesday 05 August
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 53.1
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (July)
○ Previous: 54.1
○ Forecast: 53.7
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (July)
○ Previous: 53.6
○ Forecast: 53
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (July)
○ Previous: 54.2
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (July)
○ Previous: 53.3
○ Forecast: 53.7
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 47.2
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 46.8
○ Forecast: 49.8
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 48.6
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 49.4
○ Forecast: 51.6
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 49.3
○ Forecast: 52.1
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 53.6
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (July)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 53.6
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (July)
○ Previous: 54.0
○ Forecast: 55
Thursday 06 August
● 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (June)
○ Previous: A$-3.018B
○ Forecast: A$ 1.9B
● 07:30 AM - European - S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
○ Previous: 42.8
○ Forecast: 43.6
● 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
○ Previous: 38.2
○ Forecast: 39.8
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
○ Previous: 44.8
○ Forecast: 45
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
○ Previous: 38.4
○ Forecast:38.6
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (July)
○ Previous: 47.9
○ Forecast: 49
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (July)
○ Previous: 47.1
○ Forecast: 48
Friday 07 August
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (July)
○ Previous: $125.62B
○ Forecast: $105.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (July)
○ Previous: 27%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (July)
○ Previous: 36%
● 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (June)
○ Previous: €19.1B
○ Forecast: € 17.2B
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (July)
○ Previous: 6.5%
○ Forecast: 6.5%
● 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (July)
○ Previous: 57K
○ Forecast: 79.0K
● 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (July)
○ Previous: 4.2%
○ Forecast: 4.2%
● 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (July)
○ Previous: 56.2
○ Forecast: 55
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 03 August
● Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
● Tyson Foods
● Loews Corporation
● Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday 04 August
● Rockwell Automation
● MCDONALDS
● Booking
● Toyota Motor
● Gilead Sciences
● Mattel
● BP
● CATERPILLAR
● Amgen
● Merck
● PFIZER
● Marathon Petroleum
● AMD
● Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co
● HSBC
● Hugo Boss
● BioNTech
● Continental
● Deutsche Lufthansa
● Zalando
● Bayer
Wednesday 05 August
● EBAY
● Honda Motor
● Expedia Group
● Kraft Heinz
● CVS Health
● Beyond Meat
● Beiersdorf
● Eli Lilly & Co
● DHL Group
● WALT DISNEY
● Infineon Technologies
● Uber Technologies
● Novo Nordisk
● Tenaris
● Fresenius SE & Co
● Novavax
● McKesson
● Aurora Cannabis
● HEINEKEN
● GLENCORE
Thursday 06 August
● AIG
● ConocoPhillips
● Swiss Re
● Rheinmetall
● Commerzbank
● KBC Group
● Siemens
● Deutsche Telekom
● DIAGEO
● SBM OFFSHORE
● Assicurazioni Generali
Friday 07 August
● Daimler
● Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
● Allianz
● Canopy Growth
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 31, 2026
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