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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: Global Economy, Sanctions and Markets Today

Carolane de Palmas
October 27, 2025

Weekly Outlook

 

What Happened This Week?

 

  • U.S. Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to an annual rate of 4.06 million, the highest in seven months, helped by lower mortgage rates.
  • Factory activity in the central U.S. expanded for the fourth straight month in October after more than three years of contraction, with price growth picking up.
  • Washington imposed new oil sanctions on Russia’s largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in coordination with Europe. Putin called the move an “unfriendly act” that could harm bilateral ties.
  • The U.S. and Australia announced plans to invest over $3 billion in critical minerals projects within six months, though details remain limited.
  • Inflation accelerated to 2.4% in September in Canada, the highest level in seven months, exceeding economists’ forecast of 2.2%.
  • Canadian retail sales fell 0.7% in September after a 1% rise in August, reflecting weaker consumer sentiment and concerns over U.S. trade tensions.
  • A Bank of Canada survey showed business confidence at a two-year low, with one-third of firms expecting a recession — up from 28% last quarter.
  • U.K. inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, suggesting the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates next month.
  • Swiss watch exports fell 3.1% year-on-year in September to 1.99 billion francs, dragged by a 56% drop in U.S. demand amid 39% tariffs. Exports to mainland China and Hong Kong rose 18% and 21% respectively, helping offset some losses.
  • Turkey’s inflation climbed unexpectedly to 33.3% in September, the first increase since May 2024, prompting the central bank to slow its pace of rate cuts.
  • China’s economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year but still near the official 5% annual target.
  • China’s next five-year plan prioritizes technological self-sufficiency, reduced reliance on the U.S., and stronger domestic consumption to rebalance growth.
  • Japan’s exports rebounded 4.2% in September after four months of decline, aided by a 2.3% weaker yen. Shipments to the U.S. fell 13.3%, marking the sixth straight monthly drop.
  • Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said conditions are favorable for a rate increase as inflation nears target, though most economists expect no change at the October meeting.
  • The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive meeting, as household debt continues to rise.
  • Indonesia’s central bank also held its benchmark rate at 4.75%, maintaining a cautious stance amid regional uncertainties.
  • Australia’s consumer confidence slipped 1.2 points last week to 85.1 as households reacted to the RBA’s cautious tone on rates.

 

This Week’s Market Movers

 

Forex

Weekly Outlook: Global Economy, Sanctions and Markets Today
  • The USD/JPY is up more than 1.70%.
  • The NZD/JPY is up more than 2.10%.
  • The JPY/CAD is down more than 1.90%.
  • The GBP/NOK is down more than 1.50%.
  • Rupee rose to a 2-month high.

 

Commodities

Weekly Outlook: Global Economy, Sanctions and Markets Today

 

  • Crude oil and Brent prices increased, as Trump imposed new sanctions on the two biggest Russian oil companies: Lukoil and Rosneft.
  • Silver prices posted their biggest one day drop in dollars in more than 14 years on Tuesday.
  • Gold prices lost 5.7% on Tuesday, their largest daily slide since 2013.
  • Palladium Futures are down more than 13%.
  • Natural Gas Futures are up more than 10%.
  • Cocoa Futures are up more than 6.30%.

 

Indices

Weekly Outlook: Global Economy, Sanctions and Markets Today

 

  • South Korea's Kospi hit a new record high and is up more than 5.60%.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up more than 3.15%.
  • The VIX index is down more than 15%.
     

Shares

 

Tops

 

 

Flops

 

 

Important Events to Follow

 

Monday 27 October

  • 08:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (October)
    • Previous: 87.7
    • Forecast: 87
  • 12:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (September)
    • Previous: 2.9%
    • Forecast: -1.2%

 

Tuesday 28 October

  • 07:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (November)
    • Previous: -22.3
    • Forecast: -23

 

Wednesday 29 October

  • 05:00 AM - Japanese Consumer Confidence (October)
    • Previous: 35.3
    • Forecast: 35.5
  • 08:00 AM - Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q3)
    • Previous: 0.8%
    • Forecast: 0.7%
  • 08:00 AM - Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
    • Previous: 3.1%
    • Forecast: 2.7%
  • 01:45 PM - Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
    • Previous: 2.5%
    • Forecast: 2.25%
  • 06:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
    • Previous: 4.25%
    • Forecast: 4.0%
  • 06:30 PM - American Fed Press Conference

 

Thursday 30 October

  • 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 0.5%
  • Forecast: 0.5%
  • 06:30 AM - French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel  (Q3)
    • Previous: 0.8%
    • Forecast: 0.7%
  • 09:00 AM - German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
    • Previous: 0.2%
    • Forecast: 0.1%
  • 10:00 AM - European GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
    • Previous: 1.5%
    • Forecast: 1.1%
  • 12:30 PM - American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q3)
    • Previous: 3.8%
    • Forecast: 3.8%
  • 01:00 PM - German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (October)
    • Previous: 2.4%
    • Forecast: 2.3%
  • 01:15 PM - European ECB Interest Rate Decision
    • Previous: 2.15%
    • Forecast: 2.15%
  • 01:45 PM - European ECB Press Conference

 

Friday 31 October

  • 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (October)
    • Previous: 49.8
    • Forecast: 50.2
  • 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (October)
    • Previous: 50.0
    • Forecast: 50.4
  • 07:45 AM - French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (October)
    • Previous: 1.2%
    • Forecast: 1.3%
  • 10:00 AM - European Inflation Rate YoY Flash (October)
    • Previous: 2.2%
    • Forecast: 2.1%
  • 12:30 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (September)
    • Previous: 0.2%
    • Forecast: 0.2%
  • 12:30 PM - American Personal Income MoM (September)
    • Previous: 0.4%
    • Forecast: 0.4%
  • 12:30 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (September)
    • Previous: 0.6%
    • Forecast: 0.4%

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

 

Monday 27 October

  • Unicredit

 

Tuesday 28 October

  • UNITEDHEALTH
  • STMicro
  • Amgen
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions
  • Robinhood
  • Kraft Heinz
  • BIOGEN
  • HSBC HOLDINGS
  • Booking
  • EBAY
  • Ubisoft Entertainment
  • Symrise
  • Novartis
  • Visa
  • Mondelez
  • PayPal
  • Electronic Arts
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
  • Seagate Technology
  • Nomura

 

Wednesday 29 October

  • UBS Group
  • Uber Technologies
  • CMS Energy
  • ConocoPhillips
  • Tenaris
  • Airbus
  • Daimler
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev
  • Banco Comercial
  • Norwegian Cruise Line
  • Adidas
  • Jeronimo Martins
  • Banco Santander
  • MICROSOFT
  • Alphabet
  • META
  • CATERPILLAR
  • VERIZON
  • BOEING
  • CVS Health
  • Starbucks
  • GLAXOSMITHKLINE
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill
  • GOOGLE

 

Thursday 30 October

  • Altria
  • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
  • SHELL
  • Merck
  • Credit Agricole
  • Eli Lilly & Co
  • Dominion Energy
  • Repsol
  • Prysmian
  • Deutsche Lufthansa
  • Volkswagen
  • PUMA
  • CTT CORREIOS PORT
  • APPLE
  • Mastercard
  • Total
  • ING GROEP

 

Friday 31 October

  • Colgate-Palmolive
  • Intesa Sanpaolo
  • Semapa-Sociedade De Investim
  • Berkshire Hathaway B
  • EXXON MOBIL
  • Abbvie
  • CHEVRON

 

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 24 October 2025

 

 

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