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News & Analysis
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Market Outlook: Bond Yields Rise, BOK Hikes & Jobs Data

Carolane de Palmas
August 28, 2026

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

Global

  • The global economy remains relatively resilient despite trade tensions, Middle East instability and a sharp rise in government bond yields.
  • World trade increased 2% in June, helped by strong AI-related investment and rising Asian exports, suggesting the Strait of Hormuz disruption has so far had a limited impact on global trade.
  • The outlook could become more fragile in the second half of the year as new U.S. tariffs and shipping disruptions weigh on international commerce.
  • Global bond markets remain under pressure as higher debt levels, renewed inflation concerns, political uncertainty and weaker demand from traditional bond buyers push yields higher.
  • The AI investment boom remains an important growth engine, particularly for the U.S. and Asian exporters, but economists and the IMF warn that a slowdown in AI spending could expose vulnerabilities in the global economy.

 

Eurozone

  • Lending to eurozone businesses slowed to €22 billion in July from €27 billion in June, suggesting tighter financial conditions are beginning to weigh on corporate borrowing.
  • France remains under particular pressure in bond markets as investors focus on its large fiscal deficit and growing political uncertainty.

 

Germany

  • The German economy expanded 0.3% in Q2, supported by stronger exports and better-than-expected retail activity.
  • Consumer confidence improved, with the September index rising to -26.6 from -29.2 and income expectations reaching a six-month high.
  • Despite the recovery, sentiment remains below pre-conflict levels, highlighting continued caution among German households.

 

United Kingdom

  • The U.K. bond market remains under pressure, with yields reaching multi-year highs amid broader concerns over government debt, inflation and fiscal sustainability.

 

United States

  • The economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, unchanged from the previous estimate, with consumer spending and AI-related infrastructure investment providing the main support.
  • Imports and weaker government spending offset part of the growth, limiting the overall pace of expansion.
  • The PCE price index increased 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in June, while annual headline and core PCE inflation stood at 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
  • Consumer spending rose 0.2% and personal income increased 0.4% in July, pointing to continued underlying household resilience.
  • Fed officials remain divided over whether persistent inflation reflects temporary shocks or stronger underlying demand, with three policymakers having favored a rate increase.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continues to provide limited guidance on his rate outlook, arguing that excessive central-bank communication can cause markets to treat forecasts as commitments.
  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she could support higher rates if incoming data fail to show sufficient progress on inflation, although her latest projection still assumes rates remain unchanged through year-end.
  • The Supreme Court ruling protecting Fed Governor Lisa Cook from immediate removal has reinforced questions around central-bank independence, with Cook’s legal team rejecting allegations of mortgage fraud.

 

Canada

  • An early Statistics Canada estimate points to a 0.6% monthly decline in wholesale sales in July, mainly reflecting weaker demand for agricultural supplies, minerals, ores and precious metals.
  • Canada also faces renewed trade uncertainty after President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian cars and auto parts to 50%, potentially complicating automakers’ production and investment decisions.

 

Japan

  • Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said policymakers remain alert to inflation risks and will assess whether further tightening is required.
  • Markets are pricing in close to a 90% probability of a rate increase at the September 17-18 meeting, with the BoJ arguing that financial conditions remain accommodative.
  • Japan’s bond market is also under pressure, with higher yields reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy and broader global bond-market volatility.

 

South Korea

  • The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% in a non-unanimous decision, taking a pre-emptive approach to prevent inflation pressures from becoming entrenched.
  • The central bank significantly upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, reflecting stronger economic momentum.

 

Australia

  • Markets are increasingly positioning for another RBA rate hike, potentially as soon as September, following stronger inflation and three consecutive months of improving consumer spending.
  • The RBA remains concerned about persistent price pressures and does not expect inflation to return to its target range until the end of 2027.
  • Further tightening could, however, put significant pressure on the housing market and increase the risk of a sharp correction in property prices.

 

South-East Asia

  • The Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 1.00% for a third consecutive meeting, with weak domestic demand and subdued growth giving policymakers room to remain cautious.
  • Thailand’s central bank expects GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 while assessing the economic impact of Middle East tensions.
  • The Philippines continues to face tighter monetary conditions as the central bank’s recent rate increases aim to contain inflationary pressures.


 

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

EUR/USD:

YTD: -0.86%

Weekly: -0.27%

 

USD/JPY:

YTD: +1.85%

Weekly: +0.36%

 

GBP/USD:

YTD: +0.98%

Weekly: -0.27%

 

AUD/USD:

YTD: +7.99%

Weekly: +0.55%

 

USD/CAD:

YTD: +1.05%

Weekly: +0.31%

 

EUR/CHF:

YTD: +0.69%

Weekly: +0.21%
 

  • The USD/RUB and the EUR/RUB are up more than 2.5%.
  • The AUD/CHF and the AUD/CAD are up more than 1.7%.
  • The ZAR/JPY and the AUD/SGD are up more than 1.2%.
  • The AUD/USD is up more than 1%.
  • The CHF/ZAR, theEUR/ZAR and the GBP/ZAR are down more than 1%.
  • The EUR/AUD, JPY/AUD and the GBP/AUD are down more than 1.4%.
  • The GBP/USD and the EUR/USD are down more than 0.3%.

 

Commodities

Gold:

YTD: +6.14%

Weekly: +1.38%

 

Brent:

YTD: +45.19%

Weekly: -5.17%

 

WTI:

YTD: +45.07%

Weekly: -3.26%


Copper:

YTD: +17.51%

Weekly: +3.32%

 


Indices

Dax40:

YTD: +7.62%

Weekly: +1.42%


S&P 500:

YTD: +12.40%

Weekly: +0.85%


NASDAQ:

YTD: +13.03%

Weekly: +1.31%

 

DOW JONES:

YTD: +11.36%

Weekly: +1.52%

 

FTSE 100:

YTD: +8.67%

Weekly: +0.41%


BOVESPA:

YTD: +8.70%

Weekly: +4.29%

 

  • The Bovespa index is up more than 4%.
  • The Vix and the CAC40 index are down more than 2%.

 

Shares

Tops

 

Flops

 

Important Events to Follow
Monday 31 August

  • 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 49.2
    • Forecast: 49.7
  • 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 49.0
    • Forecast: 50.4
  • 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS General PMI (August)
    • Previous: 49.3
    • Forecast: 50.2
  • 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (August)
    • Previous: 34.9
    • Forecast: 35
  • 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (August)
    • Previous: 2.8%
    • Forecast: 3.0%
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.0
    • Forecast: 52.0

 

Tuesday 01 September

  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 54.5
    • Forecast: 55.1
  • 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 50.9
    • Forecast: 50.8
  • 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 50.2
    • Forecast: 50.9
  • 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 53.2
    • Forecast: 52.8
  • 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 49.8
    • Forecast: 51.5
  • 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.2
    • Forecast: 54.1
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 51.9
    • Forecast: 52.8
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 51.9
    • Forecast: 51.5
  • 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (August)
    • Previous: 2.9%
    • Forecast: 3.3%
  • 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 53.5
    • Forecast: 52.7
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 53.9
    • Forecast: 53.2
  • 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)
    • Previous: 55.6
    • Forecast: 55.3
  • 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (July)
    • Previous: 7.359M
    • Forecast: 7.32M

 

Wednesday 02 September

  • 01:30 AM - Australian - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
    • Previous: 0.3%
    • Forecast: 0.0%
  • 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Interest Rate Decision
    • Previous: 2.25%
    • Forecast: 2.25%
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 53.2
    • Forecast: 52.5
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 53.6
    • Forecast: 52.9

 

Thursday 03 September

  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.7
    • Forecast: 53.4
  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 51.2
    • Forecast: 52.3
  • 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (July)
    • Previous: A$4.296B
    • Forecast: A$3.7B
  • 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (August)
    • Previous: 50.4
    • Forecast: 50.8
  • 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (August)
    • Previous: 50.8
    • Forecast: 51
  • 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (August)
    • Previous: 58.3
    • Forecast: 57.5
  • 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (August)
    • Previous: 56.5
    • Forecast: 56
  • 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 49.4
    • Forecast: 48.8
  • 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 49.6
    • Forecast: 48.4
  • 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 51.3
    • Forecast: 51.0
  • 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 49.8
    • Forecast: 48.5
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.0
    • Forecast: 52.1
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 51.7
    • Forecast: 51.7
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.2
    • Forecast: 52.5
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 52.1
    • Forecast: 52.8
  • 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (August)
    • Previous: 49.7
    • Forecast: 48.9
  • 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (August)
    • Previous: 49.1
    • Forecast: 49
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 54.5
    • Forecast: 56.0
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (August)
    • Previous: 54.6
    • Forecast: 56.8
  • 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (August)
    • Previous: 54.1
    • Forecast: 53.8


Friday 04 September

  • 07:30 AM - European - S&P Global Construction PMI (August)
    • Previous: 44.3
    • Forecast: 44
  • 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Construction PMI (August)
    • Previous: 41.5
    • Forecast: 42
  • 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Construction PMI (August)
    • Previous: 42.1
    • Forecast: 42
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (August)
    • Previous: 44.7
    • Forecast: 45
  • 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (August)
    • Previous: 6.4%
    • Forecast: 6.4%
  • 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (August)
    • Previous: -23K
    • Forecast: 45K
  • 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (August)
    • Previous: 4.1%
    • Forecast: 4.2%
  • 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (August)
    • Previous: 55.1
    • Forecast: 54.7

 

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Tuesday 01 September

  • Dell
  • Medtronic
  • Swiss Life


Wednesday 02 September

  • Hewlett Packard
  • Broadcom


 

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of August 28, 2026


 

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