Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United Kingdom
- UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, with higher household energy bills following Ofgem’s 13% increase in the price cap driving much of the rise.
- Goldman Sachs expects energy-related inflation to increase further, potentially pushing headline CPI above the Bank of England’s latest forecast.
- The unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months through June, while annual wage growth excluding bonuses edged up to 3.5% from 3.4%.
- The combination of stable employment and renewed inflation pressures strengthens expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged next month.
- Youth unemployment remained elevated at 16.2%, highlighting growing concerns over rising inactivity and fewer entry-level opportunities. The government plans to expand technical education from age 14, with courses better aligned with local labor-market needs.
Eurozone
- Germany’s ZEW investor-confidence index jumped to 34.2 in August from 26.3 in July, supported by strong corporate earnings, exports and planned government infrastructure spending.
- Despite the improvement in sentiment, record-low water levels on the Rhine pose a growing threat to industrial activity by restricting transport capacity and increasing logistics costs.
- The Bundesbank warned that the Rhine disruption could temporarily weigh on German output and exports, with the economy expected to expand only marginally in the current quarter.
Sweden
- The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, extending its rate pause to a seventh consecutive meeting.
- Policymakers remain cautious as renewed Middle East tensions could generate additional inflationary pressure.
United States
- The Fed’s July meeting minutes showed broader support for tighter policy than suggested by the three officials who formally dissented in favor of a rate hike.
- Many policymakers indicated that rates may need to rise if inflation fails to move lower, keeping the prospect of renewed tightening alive despite the decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%.
- Four Democratic senators called on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to disclose his communications with President Trump, arguing that undisclosed discussions could raise concerns about political influence over monetary policy.
- The New York Fed’s manufacturing index surged to 20.6 in August, its strongest reading in four years, with both new orders and shipments pointing to solid factory activity.
- Housing starts fell 12.4% in July to 1.239 million, well below expectations, although building permits rose 5% to 1.443 million.
- Homebuilder confidence remained weak at 35, with high mortgage rates and construction costs continuing to constrain demand. August marked the 16th consecutive month in which at least 30% of builders reported cutting prices.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 in the week through August 15, below expectations, although continuing claims increased by 18,000 to just under 1.8 million.
Canada
- Annual inflation accelerated to 3% in July, with the 0.5% monthly increase in consumer prices largely driven by higher gasoline costs linked to Middle East tensions.
- The inflation report will be closely watched ahead of the Bank of Canada’s September 2 policy decision.
- Housing starts declined 4.9% in July to an annualized 229,074 units, missing expectations. Construction fell sharply in Vancouver and Toronto, while Montreal recorded modest growth.
- Existing-home sales nevertheless increased 0.5% in July, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain.
Japan
- The 10-year Japanese government bond yield climbed to 2.93%, its highest level since September 1996, as markets increased bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike.
- Concerns over Japan’s fiscal position also contributed to the rise in yields, while expectations of further support for the yen strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy.
Indonesia
- Bank Indonesia kept its seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.75% at the first policy meeting under acting Governor Destry Damayanti.
- The central bank also maintained its deposit facility at 4.75% and lending facility at 6.50%.
- Destry still requires parliamentary approval before becoming the permanent governor.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- On Monday, the dollar slipped to its lowest point in nearly three months.
- The CHF/TRY is up more than 2.1%.
- The NZD/USD is up more than 2%.
- The EUR/USD, the NZD/JPY and the CHF/JPY are up more than 1.4%.
- The AUD/USD, the EUR/JPY and the GBP/USD are up more than 1%.
- The USD/CZK and the USD/NOK are down more than 1.7%.
- The USD/CHF is down more than 1.5%.
- The USD/CAD is down more than 1%.
Commodities
- London Gas oil prices are up more than 8.5%.
- Platinum, Dutch TTF Natural Gas, WTI and Silver prices are up more than 6%.
- Brent and Sugar prices are up more than 5%.
- Cotton, Oats, Coffee, Orange juice and Cocoa prices are up more than 4%.
- Lean Hogs prices are down more than 15%.
Indices
Shares
Tops
- Moderna: +109.46%
- Copart: +16.82%
- Strategy: +15.75%
- Target: +13.25%
- Marvell Technology: +12.98%
Flops
- Steel Dynamic: -15.94%
- Crowdstrike: -15.60%
- Coreweave: -15.55%
- Jabil: -14.50%
- Norwegian Cruise Line: -14.32%
- Infineon Technologies: -11.34%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 24 August
- 12:30 PM - American - Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)
- Previous: -0.02
- Forecast: 0.1
Tuesday 25 August
- 01:30 AM - Australian - RBA Meeting Minutes
- 08:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (August)
- Previous: 86.6
- Forecast: 85.9
Wednesday 26 August
- 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.1%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.3%
- Forecast: 0.7%
- 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2)
- Previous: 2.1%
- Forecast: 1.5%
- 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.2%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.3%
- Forecast: 0.2%
Thursday 27 August
- 06:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (September)
- Previous: -29.6
- Forecast: -30
Friday 28 August
- 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (August)
- Previous: 34.9
- Forecast: 35
- 06:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (August)
- Previous: 2.1%
- Forecast: 2.0%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian - GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q2)
- Previous: -0.1%
- Forecast: 2.5%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
- Previous: 0%
- Forecast: 0.6%
- 02:00 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
- Previous: -911K
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 25 August
- Zoom
Wednesday 26 August
- NVIDIA
- Salesforce
- Photronics
- Ageas
Thursday 27 August
- Best Buy
- Dollar General
- Dollar Tree
- Pernod-Ricard
- Mota Engil
Friday 28 August
- Gold Resource
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of August 21, 2026
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