Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● The International Energy Agency warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly urgent as global oil inventories fall rapidly.
● The prolonged disruption is keeping energy markets tight and pushing government bond yields higher across the U.S., U.K. and eurozone as investors reassess inflation and interest-rate risks.
United Kingdom
● The economy expanded 0.4% in Q2, slowing from Q1 but still beating the Bank of England’s expectations.
● Services remained the main growth engine, while retail spending benefited from World Cup-related purchases and unusually warm June weather.
● Growth is expected to lose momentum as higher prices and borrowing costs increasingly weigh on households and businesses.
United States
● July CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, while core inflation increased 2.5% year-on-year, reducing pressure on the Fed to resume rate hikes in September.
● Markets cut the probability of a September rate increase to below 50% following the inflation data, although two upcoming inflation reports could still change the outlook.
● Fed officials remain divided, with at least six of the 12 voting members open to future rate increases if inflation fails to cool further.
● Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remains under pressure to clarify the rationale behind the previous rate decision, after investors reacted negatively to his limited guidance.
● The producer-price index was unchanged in July after falling 0.1% in June, helped by slightly lower energy prices.
● Upcoming methodological changes to the PCE inflation measure are expected to reduce the reported core inflation rate when introduced in September.
● The labor market remained relatively resilient: initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since September 2022 in July, while the Employment Trends Index rose to 107.71 in July from 106.74 in June.
● However, the Employment Trends Index is only 0.6% above its level a year ago, suggesting payroll growth could remain subdued.
● Initial jobless claims edged up to 209,000 in the week through August 8, above expectations, while continuing claims fell by 22,000 to 1.78 million.
● Existing-home sales dropped 1.7% in July to a 4.06 million annual rate, while the median home price climbed 2% year-on-year to $434,100.
● Housing supply also tightened, with unsold inventory falling 1.9% in July to 1.54 million homes.
Norway
● Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.25% but kept the door open to another increase as inflation remains above target.
● Policymakers are also monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict and the blocked Strait of Hormuz on energy prices and inflation expectations.
Australia
● The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously kept its cash rate at 4.35%, warning that inflation remains too high.
● Governor Michele Bullock said further tightening cannot be ruled out if supply shocks keep price pressures elevated.
● The RBA does not expect inflation to return to the midpoint of its target range until late 2027, while falling house prices are not yet considered a threat to financial stability.
Indonesia
● President Prabowo Subianto nominated acting Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate to lead the central bank.
● Destry would replace Perry Warjiyo, who stepped down in July, but still needs to pass a parliamentary fit-and-proper test.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The ZAR/JPY is up more than 1.8%.
● The MXN/JPY and the USD/BRL are up more than 1.4%.
● The CAD/JPY and the AUD/JPY are up more than 1%.
● The CHF/ZAR is down more than 1%.
● The JPY/GBP is down more than 0.9%.
Commodities
● London Gas oil prices are up more than 8.5%.
● Oats prices are up more than 7%.
● Palladium prices are down more than 5%.
Indices
● The KOSPI index is up more than 9%.
● The Japan 225 index is up more than 4.5%.
● The VIX index is down more than 7.5%.
● The Bovespa index is down more than 5.8%.
Shares
Tops
● Nebius: +34.32%
● Super Micro Computer: +33.29%
● Coreweave: +24.56%
● SpaceX: +22.95%
● Airbnb: +22.09%
● Sandisk: +21.42%
● Workday: +21.27%
● Marathon Petroleum: +19.09%
● Moderna: +18.18%
● Axon: +17.83%
Flops
● Tapestry: -20.75%
● The Trade Desk: -17.60%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 17 August
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (July)
○ Previous: 5.3%
○ Forecast: 4.8%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (July)
○ Previous: 1%
○ Forecast: 1.6%
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (July)
○ Previous: 2.8%
○ Forecast: 2.6%
Tuesday 18 August
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (August)
○ Previous: 4.1%
○ Forecast: -2.6%
● 06:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (June)
○ Previous: 4.9%
○ Forecast: 4.9%
● 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
○ Previous: 26.3
○ Forecast: 21.5
● 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (July)
○ Previous: 1.374M
○ Forecast: 1.39M
● 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (July)
○ Previous: 1.427M
○ Forecast: 1.34M
Wednesday 19 August
● 06:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (July)
○ Previous: 2.6%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Minutes
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (July)
○ Previous: ¥-406.9B
○ Forecast: ¥-500.0B
Thursday 20 August
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 53.6
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (July)
○ Previous: 1.7%
○ Forecast: 1.7%
Friday 21 August
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 54.5
○ Forecast: 54.6
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 06:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (July)
○ Previous: 1%
○ Forecast: -0.6%
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 49.4
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 50
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 52
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 51.3
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 51.6
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 52
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 52
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 54.5
○ Forecast: 53.2
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 53.5
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast: 53.4
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 18 August
● HOME DEPOT
● BAIDU
Wednesday 19 August
● Weibo Corporation
● TJX Companies
● Lowe'S Cos
● Target
Thursday 20 August
● WALMART
● Alibaba
● AEGON
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of August 14, 2026
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